THE GAMES are over. Let the games begin.General Elections in Jamaica have never been held in the months of August or September. If Nomination Day for the 2002 General Election is not announced by today - Friday, August 9 - then voters will go to the polls sometime between September and October of this year.

The only issue other than the holding and losing of the Referendum on Federation that drives more fear into the hearts of the People's National Party (PNP) supporters is the quality and quantity of the party's defeat in the General Election of October 30, 1980. Some analysts feel that this fear alone rules out an October election. This would rule in September.

Present PNP historians may however be inclined to remind the Party President that it was in the month of September that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) secured the majority of votes to "win" the Federation Refer-endum on September 19, 1961.

The Prime Minister, who is quoted as remarking recently that this will be a "September to Remember", would also have to forego plans for the party's 64th annual conference. Annual conferences are usually scheduled for dates close to the 18th of September -- the date the PNP was launched in 1938. This possibility has already begun to flash signals and the ringing bells all over the country.

These symbolisms, however, should not detain P.J. Patterson for long. His administration has presided successfully over the World Junior Games, as well the Emancipation and Independence celebrations. Public participation in these events was not only significant in numbers but also high in spirit. There have also been very little if any negative public repercussions surrounding the handling of the flood relief effort. In fact, most observers give the elected and unelected officials high marks for their efforts.

In addition, the most recently published public opinion poll was carried out at the end of June before most of these events took place. The findings show the PNP breathing down the JLP's neck, as the election tape looms large. Up to the end of June, the findings indicate a close race.

CLOSE ELECTIONS

We have had a few close races in General Elections over Jamaica's electoral history since the granting of Universal Adult Suffrage (UAS). Twelve (12) General Elections have been contested by both traditional parties (JLP and PNP) since 1944. One other, held in December 1983, was uncontested by the PNP. Of those contested, the JLP has won five and the PNP seven. All of the PNP's victories have been won by margins over the JLP varying from 11 per cent to 23 per cent of the popular vote. (See Table I).

Of the five JLP victories, three have been won by margins of less than 2 per cent. In one of these (1949), the JLP lost the popular vote to the PNP but won a majority of seats (See Table II). The first victory by the JLP in 1944 was won by a margin of 17 per cent over the PNP (41 per cent - 24 per cent). However, in that election the PNP deliberately ran candidates in only 19 out of the 32 constituencies. Independents won five seats and along with a Third Party got 35 per cent of the popular vote.

The last contested election won by the JLP was in 1980. This was won by a margin over the PNP of 18 per cent. This has been the largest JLP margin over the PNP since 1944. The PNP's largest margin over the JLP was by 23 per cent in 1993. (See Tables I and II).

The three close elections based on the popular vote were in 1949, 1962 and 1967 (See Table II). In two of these elections, the JLP won by less than 10,000 votes over the PNP -- 1962 and 1967. The JLP lost by 3,500 in the other (1949) -- while winning the majority of seats (17-13). Independents won the other two seats and along with a Third Party received just over 13 per cent of the popular vote.

If the 2002 polling trends hold until the election then we could see a repeat of the close popular vote recorded in these three elections. Margins of victory were 0.8 per cent in 1949, 1.4 per cent in 1962 and 1.6 per cent in 1967. The seat count would be another matter. The turnout in the September/October 2002 General Election will impact significantly on both the split in the popular vote as well as the seat count.

VOTER TURNOUT

Commenting on the most recent public opinion poll of June 29/30, published by The Observer of Sunday, July 28, 2002, the Stone team said: "we estimate that the turnout in the next General Election will be anywhere between 57 per cent and 75 per cent." Their research also indicates that a "turnout of 71 per cent is likely".

An analysis of the response to three of the questions put by the Stone interviewers, to the 1,202 respondents, 18 and over, in 40 communities across all parishes can provide some useful insights.

The three questions are:

(1) Are you enumerated? - 80.5% said yes.

(2) Do you intend to vote? - 57% of those enumerated said yes.

(3) If an election should be held NOW, which party would you vote for? - A total of 57% of all those persons who are old enough to vote indicated their party preference.

The response to the first question suggests that, within the margin of error of 3 per cent, the finding of the Stone team is accurate. Eighty point five per cent (80.5%) of the respondents say they are enumerated. The real figure, using the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) figures, is 78 per cent (See Table III). This is based on using the end of year - 2001 - population figure, which is computed using the 1991 Census as the base figure. The number of persons who are 18 years and over, and therefore old enough to vote is 1,670,769. Of this number 78 per cent or 1,301,593 are on the voters list.

The responses to the second and third questions provide insights into the possible number of persons who will turn out to vote. In Question 2 - "Do you intend to vote?" - 57% of those persons who are enumerated say yes. This gives you a potential turnout of 742,000 voters. This number represents 57 per cent of the 1,301,593 people who are actually on the list. (See Table III).

A detailed response to question three as to which party you would vote for NOW, which was asked of all persons 18 and over, is given in Table IV. The potential voter turnout based on the answer to this question (excluding the Won't Say) is again 57 per cent. However, this is 57 per cent of the 1,671,000 persons who are 18 years and over. This works out to be a potential turnout of 952,470 voters. We therefore have a band, which stretches from 742,000 to 952,000 - a difference of 210,000 voters. The actual turnout will have a significant impact on the outcome of the elections, if they decide to vote.

However, analyses of the polling trends leading up to the last three General Elections (1989, 1993, 1997) show the numbers responding positively to the "How Will You Vote?" (Question 3) falling significantly by Election Day. In all three cases they are much closer to the figure given in response to the second question - "Do you intend to vote in the next elections?"

Separately, there is an increase of 119,299 voters for the September/October 2002 Election, when compared to December 1997. Also, none of the original 1.182 million registered voters in 1997 were re-enumerated. They were simply left on the list. Therefore, we cannot accurately assess their state of mind in relation to their desire to be on the present list or therefore their inclination to vote.

Taking all of these factors into consideration, my own sense tells me we will be closer to a 65 per cent turnout as a percentage of those on the list. This amounts to approximately 850,000 voters or 51 per cent of those old enough to vote. This takes us back to a close election as far as the popular vote is concerned. The seat count remains another matter to be determined.

Who will want to "Remember this September" in a positive way is anybody's guess. The anticipated August Observer/Stone and Gleaner/Anderson polls should give us further insights.

One love, one heart.