The battle for victory
Dr. D.K. Duncan Contributor

JUST UNDER four weeks remain before the Jamaican electorate go to the polls to elect a new Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) administration or to re-elect the People's National Party (PNP) to govern for a fourth consecutive term.

The 13th parliamentary general elections, since the introduction of Universal Adult Suffrage in 1944, to be contested by both traditional parties (JLP and PNP) will be all over before the end of October.

The Guessing Game for the ninth contested parliamentary general elections, since the independence general election of April 1962, will finally end. Hopefully, for the 2007 general elections, we will have agreed to fixed dates for elections - parliamentary and local. Relegating this counterproductive aspect of our political culture to the bowels of history could contribute to really making September 2002, a month to remember.

The findings of the party standings in the Gleaner/ Anderson Poll conducted between August 1 and August 23 as well the Observer/Stone Poll of August 17/18 confirm that the stage is set for a photo finish as the countdown continues to the October 15-17 election.

These two national public opinion polls published in September provide an opportunity and a basis on which to make some comparisons and draw some conclusions.

THE COMPARISON ­ ANDERSON/STONE POLLS

• After the pollster has established the sample for the population of those 18 years and over, a critical first question to this group is: 'ARE YOU ENUMERATED?' 71 per cent responded yes to the Anderson interviewers whereas 82 per cent responded yes to the Stone interviewers.
• The number of voters registered with the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) is approximately 1.3 million. The Statistical Institute of Jamaica's (STATIN) 2001 Census figure for those persons aged 18 years and over is approximately 1.59 million. This means that 82 per cent of those person old enough to vote have been enumerated. This validity check should encourage the Stone Team.
• To arrive at the figures for the party standings, the pollsters then ask those who are enumerated ("the 82 per cent who can vote") two additional questions.
• One question is ­ 'DO YOU INTEND TO VOTE?' Anderson had a response of 77 per cent while Stone had 74 per cent.
• The other question is - 'HOW DO YOU INTEND TO VOTE?' Anderson asks it this way ­ 'WHICH OF THE PARTIES DO YOU INTEND TO VOTE FOR?' Stone asks it this way ­ 'IF AN ELECTION IS CALLED NOW, WHICH PARTY WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?'

Anderson shows a combined support for all four parties (JLP, PNP, NDM/NJA, UPP) of 54 per cent. Stone shows a combined party support of 74 per cent. These Stone findings represent a dramatic increase in those expressing a party preference from 57 per cent at the end of June to this 74 per cent in mid-August, 2002 (See Table I).

When Stone asks a separate question "Have you made up your mind on whether you will be voting in the next election", ­ 74 per cent of the respondents representing the just over 1.3 million persons registered to vote said YES. This figure is therefore equivalent to those expressing their party preference (See Table I). This means that the 'WONT SAY' category has disappeared.

It is also reasonable to assume that this projected 74 per cent turnout will not increase. This could decrease by some 12 per cent based on the insight revealed in The Gleaner article of Tuesday, September 17, 2002.

TO CONTINUE THE COMPARISON:

• Anderson shows an uncommitted figure ­ those NOT showing any party preference ­ of 46 per cent. Stone's figure for those Based on the Stone polls of one month ago and two months before the election day, the PNP should continue to command 28 relatively safe seats.

TABLE I

Anderson/Stone polls comparison: August 2002

(INCLUDING THE UNCOMMITTED)

	GENERAL ELECTION	ANDERSON POLL	STONE POLL
	DEC. 18, 1997	AUG. 1-23 2002	AUG. 17/18 2002
JLP	19%	22%	34%
PNP	27%	26%	38%
THIRD PARTY	2%	6%	2%
SUBTOTAL**	48%	54%	74%
TOTAL	100%	100%	100%

** Indicate combined party preference

TABLE II

Anderson/Stone polls comparison: August 2002

(EXCLUDING THE UNCOMMITTED)

	GENERAL ELECTION	ANDERSON POLL	STONE POLL
	DEC. 18, 1997	AUG. 1-23 2002	AUG. 17/18 2002
JLP	39%	41%	46%
PNP	56%	48%	51%
THIRD PARTY	5%	11%	3%
TOTAL	100%	100%	100%

TABLE III

Most recent Stone polls compared to general election 1997 results

(EXCLUDING THE UNCOMMITTED)

	GENERAL ELECTION	STONE POLL	STONE POLL
	DEC. 18, 1997	JUNE 29/30 2002	AUG. 17/18 2002
JLP	39%	49%	46%
PNP	56%	47%	51%
THIRD PARTY	5%	4%	3%
TOTAL	100%	100%	100%

The August 17/18 Stone polls, two months before the election day, predict that the JLP should continue to hold its present twelve constituencies and pick up another 11 seats.

NOT showing a party preference is 26 per cent (See Table I).

• In the party standings both polls show a lead of approximately 4 per cent (Anderson 3.7 per cent, Stone 3.4 per cent) by the PNP over the JLP, when the category for the uncommitted is included (See Table I).
• Excluding the uncommitted this translates into a lead of 7 per cent for the PNP using the Anderson findings and 5 per cent using Stones (See Table II).

STONE FINDINGS ­
SOME CONCLUSIONS

Comparing the results of the December 1997 General Elections with the findings of the August Stone Polls, one can draw the following conclusions (See Table III):

• The PNP won the 1997 General Elections by a margin of 17 points (56 per cent - 39 per cent) over the JLP.
• The August Stone findings show a margin of 5 points (51 per cent to 46 per cent) for the PNP over the JLP. The margin of victory by the PNP has therefore been reduced by 12 percentage points.
• There is a 7 per cent increase in support for the JLP when the August Poll figures are compared to the 1997 Election results.
• There is a 5 per cent decrease in the PNP support when a similar comparison is made.

If the trends since November 2000, continue and are reflected in the September poll findings, the results of the October General Elections should show that the margin separating the two parties in the POPULAR VOTE to be very close. The SEAT COUNT, which determines the winner, should be closer to the 1960s rather than the one-sided post-1976 results.

Based on the 7 per cent increase in support for the JLP since the 1997 Elections:

• The PNP should continue to command twenty-eight relatively safe seats.
• The JLP should continue to hold its present twelve and pick up another 11 seats.

This is based on the August 17/18 polls of one month ago and two months before the election day.

This accounts for 51 of the 60 constituencies ­ PNP 28 and JLP 23. This leaves nine seats outstanding. The PNP has an advantage in five of these while the JLP could carry the other four.

The present projections are an advance over those made by me in The Gleaner article headlined "TWENTY BATTLEGROUND SEATS" published August 2, 2002. Those projections were based on the Stone June 29/30 polls.

In summary the PNP continues to hold 28 seats with a clear advantage in an additional five giving them a potential seat count of 33. The JLP holds 23 with an advantage in four more for a potential seat count of 27. These projections would hold true for elections called up to the end of August.

In effect, the operative situation at this time is PNP 28 seats, the JLP 23 seats with NINE BATTLEGROUND SEATS remaining (see Tables IV-VI).

I still subscribe to the view expressed in my contribution to The Gleaner's "Jamaica Decides -- ELECTION 2002" ­ series of Friday, September 6, 2002. I suggested that:

"The best time ­ electorally for the PNP to have called the elections are gone. An announcement immediately after the feel good successes of the Youth Games, Emancipation and Independence celebrations was the best opportunity."

I further suggested that the "propitious time" that the Prime Minister told The Gleaner's Editors' Forum that he would choose for the election date could be the subject of silent reflection when October is over.

* Former PNP General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP Adminis-tration of the 1970s. Dr. Duncan, a dental surgeon, recently established the D.K. Duncan Political Institute. Email: dktruth@hotmail.com

General elections 2002

TABLE IV

Projected seats for the PNP*

	CONSTITUENCY	1997 PNP	NDM	PNP	JLP
		MARGIN (%)	VOTE (%)	CANDIDATE	CANDIDATE
1	ST. ANDREW, S.W.	96	----	PORTIA SIMPSON MILLER	GARNETT
2	ST. ANDREW, S.	83 0.4		OMAR DAVIES DENNIS	MCINTOSH REID
3	KINGSTON, EAST	70	1	PHILLIP PAULWELL	PETER SANGSTER
4	ST. CATHERINE, S.C.	50	1	SHARON HAY-WEBSTER GARVEY	TREVON SEYMOUR
5	ST. ANDREW, E. C.	49	4	PETER PHILLIPS	CLAUDE RIDDELL
6	ST. ANN, S.E.	49	2	ALOUN NDOMBETASSAMBA	PETER FAKHOURIE JR.
7	ST. ANDREW, WEST	47	2	O.T. WILLIAMS	JOYCE ANN YOUNG
8	WESTMORELAND, E.	44	1	P.J. PATTERSON	DON FOOTE
9	ST. ELIZABETH, N.E.	39	2	ROGER CLARKE	BASIL PERRIEL
10	ST. CATHERINE, E.C.	38	6	K.D. KNIGHT	RAYMOTH NOTICE
11	MANCHESTER, N.W.	37	4	DEAN PEART	JAMES DORAN
12	ST. CATHERINE, N.W.	34	3	ROBERT PICKERSGILL	SANDRA NESBETH
13	WESTMORELAND, W.	34	21	WYCKHAM MCNEIL	PATRICK ATKINSON
14	ST. JAMES, S.	33	4	DERRICK KELLIER	CARL RHODEN

*The constituencies are listed in numerical order of the percentage margins of victory won by the PNP over the JLP.

Projected safe seats for the PNP*

	CONSTITUENCY	1997 PNP	NDM	PNP	JLP
		MARGIN (%)	VOTE (%)	CANDIDATE	CANDIDATE
15	ST. CATHERINE, S.E.	32	8	PAUL ROBERTSON	ARTHUR WILLIAMS
16	PORTLAND, EAST	26	2	DONALD RHODD	DENNIS MINOTT
17	ST. ANDREW, S.E.	25	7	MAXINE HENRY	PHILLIP HENRIQUES
18	ST. MARY, CENTRAL	25	1	MORAIS GUY	SUTCLIFFE HAUGHTON
19	WESTMORELAND, C	25	4	KARL BLYTHE	TREVOR BROOKS
20	CLARENDON, S.W.	25	3	CHARLES LEARMOND	JOEL WILLIAMS
21	MANCHESTER, S.	23	2	MICHAEL PEART	NOEL SIMPSON
22	KINGSTON CENTRAL	21	0.6	VICTOR CUMMINGS	CHARLTON COLLIE
23	PORTLAND, WEST	20	-----	ERROL ENNIS	KENNETH ROWE
24	MANCHESTER, C.	19	6	JOHN JUNOR	NORMAN HORNE
25	CLARENDON, N.	19	2	HORACE DALLEY	LAURENCE BRODERICK
26	ST. CATHERINE, S.	19	5	FITZ JACKSON	ERROL WILLIAMSON
27	HANOVER, WEST	17	7	RALSTON ANSON	TRAVIS SPENCE
28	TRELAWNY, NORTH	15	2	PATRICK HARRIS	CHRISTOPHER JOHNSON

*The constituencies are listed in numerical order of the percentage margins of victory won by the PNP over the JLP.

TABLE V

Projected safe seats for the JLP*
	CONSTITUENCY	1997 JLP	NDM	JLP	PNP
		MARGIN (%)	VOTE (%)	CANDIDATE	CANDIDATE
1	KINGSTON, W.	69	O.2	EDWARD SEAGA	BUNNY WITTER
2	ST. CATHERINE, C.	30	30	BABSEY GRANGE	HOMER WHITE
3	ST. ANDREW, N.W.	26	10	DERRICK SMITH	NEMLA WILSON
4	CLARENDON, C.	22	4	MICHAEL HENRY	LEOPOLD HYLTON
5	ST. ANDREW, N.E.	15	15	DELROY CHUCK	LEONARD GREEN
6	ST. ANDREW, N.C.	10	15	KARL SAMUDA	BARBARA CLARKE
7	MANCHESTER, N.E.	9	13	AUDLEY SHAW	DOROTHY MILLER
8	ST. ELIZABETH, N.W.	4	3	J.C. HUTCHINSON	STANLEY REDWOOD
9	CLARENDON, N.W.	2	13	CLIFTON STONE	RICHARD AZAN
10	ST. ANDREW, W.C.	1	0.3	ANDREW HOLNESS	PATRICK ROBERTS
11	ST. CATHERINE, N.E.	- 0.4**	1	ABE DABDOUB	PHYLLIS MITCHELL
12	ST. ANN, N.E.	-12*	3	SHAHINE ROBINSON	CAROL JACKSON
13	CLARENDON, S.E.	-0.3	3	RUDDY SPENCER	BASIL BURRELL
14	TRELAWNY, S.	-2	11	DEVON MCDANIEL	DOREEN CHEN
15	ST. ANDREW, W. RURAL	-3	5	ANDREW GALLIMORE	CAROL ARCHER
16	ST. THOMAS, WEST	-3	2	JAMES ROBERTSON	ANTHONY HYLTON
17	ST. ANDREW, EAST	-4	11	ST. AUBYN BARTLETT	COLIN CAMPBELL
18	CLARENDON, N.C.	-4	3	PEARNEL CHARLES	GEORGE LYN
19	ST. ANN, S.W.	-5	4	ERNEST SMITH	GLENVILLE SHAW
20	ST. ELIZABETH, S.W.	-5	1	DERRICK SANGSTER	DONALD BUCHANAN
21	ST. CATHERINE, W.C.	-5	4	KEN BAUGH	ALETHIA BARKER
22	ST. JAMES, E.C.	-6	4	EDMUND BARTLETT	DONALD COLOMATHI
23	ST. JAMES, W.C.	-6	5	CLIVE MULLINGS	HUGH SOLOMON

*The first 10 constituencies are listed in numerical order of the percentage margins of victory won by the JLP over the PNP. The other 13, listed in the negative, represents the PNP margin of victory in the 1997 General Elections.

TABLE VI
Battleground seats

	CONSTITUENCY	1997 JLP	NDM	PNP	JLP
		MARGIN (%)	VOTE (%)	CANDIDATE	CANDIDATE
1	ST. ANDREW, E. RURAL	15	8	OLIVER CLUE	JOSEPH HIBBERT
2	HANOVER, E.	14	3	LLOYD HILL	BARRINGTON GRAY
3	ST. MARY, S.E.	13	5	HARRY DOUGLAS	TARN PERALTO
4	ST. ELIZABETH, S.E.	13	3	LENWORTH BLAKE	FRANKLYN WITTER
5	ST. MARY, WEST	12	2	NEIL MCGILL	HYACINTH KNIGHT
6	ST. THOMAS, EAST	11	1	FENTON FERGUSON	DENNIS WRIGHT
7	ST. ANN, N.W.	10	2	ARNOLD BERTRAM	VERNA PARCHMENT
8	ST. JAMES, N.W.	8	4	GORDON BROWN	HORACE CHANG
9	ST. CATHERINE, S.W.	7	4	JENNIFER EDWARDS	C. EVERALD

Compiled by: D.K. Duncan Political Institute