HOURS before completing this piece, I found on the Internet the IMF's report on Jamaica's fiscal performance for 2001. Would you believe that Jamaica could have received a failing grade from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), for its last fiscal year after Prime Minister Patterson and the Finance Minister Omar Davies declared two per cent GDP growth?

The IMF Report 2002 observes: "The sizeable deterioration in public finances and the slow progress in the reduction of public debt burden are very worrisome. Partly as a result of measures responding to shocks, the Government fiscal position worsened significantly in the past year by large margins over the Staff Monitored Programme (SMP) targets. The progress in reducing the public debt burden has continued to be below expectations - because of the higher fiscal deficit and in part because of debt assumed through deferred financing schemes and contingent liabilities that materialised. The BoJ losses also increased significantly during the year as cost of sterilisation and open market operations mounted".

My concern is whether this Government has failed in providing the correct numbers to the IMF or they have colluded on lying to the Jamaican people for political expediency. This Government will certainly have to explain to investors and the entire country in the next few days, what has been going on with the financial affairs of Jamaica. How has the officially reported two per cent GDP growth for last fiscal year been derived?

THE GROWTH TALK

From where I sit, it does not look good "back-a-yard". The growth talk has been ongoing for too long now. For the last four consecutive years I have heard both the PIOJ and the BoJ bosses side with the Minister of Finance in promising unsuspecting Jamaicans economic growth. The people have been promised from a low of 1.5 per cent (2002-2003) to between 2-4 per cent in 2000-2001, and 2001-2002. For the 2002-2003 period, the BoJ Governor promised approximately 2.5 per cent growth. As citizens we are educated to believe that with growth comes the jobs. Well, it has been said that "If politicians cannot be trusted, don't trust their advisors". New bus system, new road networks, water (or access to), housing, land, cellular telephones, and an abundance of deportee cars are being brandished as "solid achievements" by a certain group, the "New Captains of Fortune and Gloom". What is true is that the physical constitution of these so-called "solid achievements" is obvious. For except water, the rest is rock hard stuff in texture, so it would be most natural that they got to be solid.

What is unfortunate is that with such significant levels of Government spending, the economy remains stagnant, and now the IMF is saying things are increasingly deteriorating. Any good economist, even from a purely textbook perspective, will tell you that Government spending to the magnitude that has occurred in Jamaica over the last five years should by now be translated into a "jump start" of the economy. The real sectors ­ instead of having been paralysed, are limping on one leg from bank to bank hoping to stay afloat ­ should be experiencing problems finding workers.

The inappropriate fiscal and monetary policies of Omar Davies, supported by the tunnel vision nature of our Prime Minister's managerial aptitude, have forced more than 150,000 Jamaicans out of work in the last 10 years (Social & Economic Survey, 2002). Another approximately 230,000 emigrated, most of whom left to seek a better life abroad. Clearly, the last decade bears so many similarities to the 1970s - unprecedented emigration, escalated unemployment rate, rise in crime and violence, a high level of despondency among the youth, women forced into becoming drug couriers, accelerated decline of rural communities and the steady disappearance of our small farmers from the land.

Why, after all that Government spending, is the unemployment rate still at an unprecedented high, and worsening? Why, are so many Jamaicans, leaving Jamaica in droves? Why are crime and murder rates still at unchecked levels? Why are sugar, banana, coffee, cocoa, the small manufacturing sector virtually wiped out? If after many years of heavy spending we are yet to crawl, something must be very wrong. The problem seems to reside at the top.

The IMF Report 2002 states, "High growth is critical to address the social problems of unemployment, crime, and poverty". The report identifies impediments to Jamaica's growth as:

• Endemic violence
• Strong trade unions
• Reluctance of the banking sector to resume Private Sector lending
• Complicated tax system that imposes too much red tape on the private sector
• Trade protection, particularly in agriculture, and
• Continued emigration.

FALSE SENSE OF ACHIEVEMENT

In spite of the known fact of a no-growth economy, there are those "band-wagonists" who have been attempting to support the false sense of achievement being purported. Most pitifully, this false sense of achievement is being disseminated amongst tens of thousands of napping Jamaican brothers and sisters in various quarters abroad.The most recent of this spate of pretence can be found in the Prime Minister's address to investors and business leaders in Atlanta, United States on Wednesday, August 14.

"The growth prospects, we are happy to report, are no longer just prospects. Our domestic economy is, in fact, experiencing accelerated growth due to the containment of our fiscal deficit to targeted levels and the reduction of inflation to an annual average of 7.8 per cent over the last five years". Why did the Prime Minister not tell his audience what he meant by accelerated growth? Does he really understand what accelerated growth means when he refers to "our domestic economy" as opposed to individual sectors? Could he be dishonest? For an economy that has not experienced as much as 0.5 per cent average real GDP growth under his stewardship in 11 years, and for which the Jamaican voters are still anxious to experience, could the Prime Minister have information yet be available to Jamaican investors? Why did he not tell the investors and business leaders in Atlanta, in percentile terms, the rate of accelerated growth to which he spoke?

I urge the Prime Minister to put the growth talk to rest, use our tax dollars to create industries that will employ our youth - through real job creation programmes ­ not jobs in the name of political expediency. While more parks and gardens are necessary, a prudent CEO would first address the cash flow crunch of his corporation before he turns to providing entertainment and luxuries to his employees. If the employees are intelligent and responsible enough, though the luxuries may be necessary, they will more than likely understand and support their CEO.

Jamaica has lost out on the economic booms enjoyed by the United States, United Kingdom and Canada during the 11 years for which Mr. Patterson has been the captain of the economy. Now that all these three economies (our largest trading partners) are either experiencing, or on the verge of, a recession, I have to question whether our Prime Minister deserves a fourth term, particularly in a more hostile domestic, international and global trade environment. It would appear that the Government does not have the capacity and perspicacity amongst its rank and file to understand the dynamics of the widening role or free marketeering, strategic privatisation, liberalisation, interdependency of national economies and the complexity of globalisation.

In seeking a new mandate, Prime Minister Patterson needs to do more than just say what the PNP plans are. Every Jamaican deserves to know why Jamaica of all the countries in the Caribbean, has made little or no progress in the last decade, during a period when the wealth of our major trading partners and the world economy experienced significant expansion. The PNP's plan appears very doubtful as they have failed to present the Jamaican people a Manifesto until last week for elections that may be held within weeks. Is this contempt yet again for the Jamaican people? After being in office for so long and having so much material and human resources at the party's disposal - it seems that all this was not enough in helping to complete a Manifesto before now. Is it that the high quality and overwhelmingly excellent reviews accorded to the "Change Pain to Gain" Manifesto of the JLP, sent members of the PNP's Manifesto Committee back to the drawing board?

Our Prime Minister needs to say how he intends to create jobs - jobs lost during the last 11 years under his stewardship. What are the plans of the PNP, particularly for the emerging intelligentsia. What opportunities have the PNP Government created to absorb these highly trained citizens? Those in the PNP like to say they put people first. The actions and evidences of its "Solid Achievement" issues have proven to be in contradiction to this latter philosophy. People are placed first by a Government when their concerns, needs and aspirations are satisfied.

TARNISHED INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION

Jamaica's reputation has been significantly tarnished in the international arena, particularly in the last decade, for its riots, drug mules, drug dons, corrupted, disgraced and rejected politicians and public servants, and cost overruns on Government projects. Citizens should hold their leaders accountable at all cost.

Why can't the learned men and women who constitute the present Cabinet be astute enough to "engineer" real economic success for their people?

As the "judgement day" approaches, it seems that many politicians are vacating their posh city dwellings to take up residence with the commoners, familiar or unfamiliar, in the rural parishes of Jamaica. They have been camping out at the homes of bereaved strangers. Others are for the first time, bathing the sick and caring for the dying. And others, have been returning much of the tax dollars collected to the people in different shapes and forms of conciliatory packages.

Are Jamaicans really stupid? I doubt that. As a matter of fact, I think amongst Jamaicans from all walks of life, are some of the finest thinkers on this planet. Maybe what is most lacking amongst us is the courage and ability to hold our leaders accountable. We failed dismally to hold them accountable to their promises.

As citizens therefore, we must accept some of the short-changing we received from those who have been elected to serve our best interests. Fortunately though, there is a process of recourse through which we can confidently and must resoundingly state our dissatisfaction. We have strong bargaining power that we must use to our advantage.

Let our action guides our destiny.