AS ELECTIONS draw near, Jamaica might well be on the way to a new generation of leaders in line with other Caribbean countries.

Buddan

Anglo-Caribbean political systems have undergone a generational sea-change in leadership in the 1990s.

All of the prime ministers are first-time prime ministers of the 1990s. None go back to the 1980s. All of the party leaders are first-time party leaders of the 1990s.

Again, none were party leaders going back to the 1980s or before. In 13 of these countries, seven prime ministers have come to office for the first time only between 1995 and 2002.

Jamaica is somewhat different.

The leaders of the governing and alternative parties, Mr. Patterson and Mr. Seaga, are 68 and 72 years respectively, giving an average of 70 years.

But the average age of 11 other prime ministers in the Anglo-Caribbean is 53 years.

Jamaica's two leaders are, on average, 16 years older than the average Caribbean prime minister and Mr. Seaga is almost one entire generation removed.

Furthermore, the JLP is the only party in the region that is offering a septuagenarian (someone 70 to 79) as prime minister.

The JLP has the most aged party leadership, a leadership that goes back to 1974.

While the rest of the Caribbean has chosen prime ministers of the new age, the JLP is offering Mr. Seaga, the only person who had served as prime minister under the old order of the 1980s.

Mr. Patterson is next as the most aged party leader and prime minister, going back to 1992.

However, Mr. Patterson has given a time-table of when he intends to retire.

We have no such indication from Mr. Seaga , who if he wins, will certainly want to be around until he is 77 or older, as prime minister or party leader.

LEADERSHIP MATTERS

Political success depends on such things as the state of the economy, leadership qualities and unity within a party.

The Caribbean electorate wants more youthful leaders and they respond to such leaders.

In 1997, the then 45-year-old Kenny Anthony in St. Lucia came to his party's campaign with a youthful slate of candidates and won 16 out of 17 of his country's seats.

In Barbados' last election, Owen Arthur, then still only 49 and seeking a second term, won 26 out of 28 seats defeating the opposition's older leaders like former prime minister, Erskine Sandiford.

In Grenada, Keith Mitchell at 50, won all 15 seats in the legislature, forcing many of the politicians of the 1980s from politics. Younger leaders bring fresher ideas.

In the Dominican Republic, Leonel Fernandez, was only in his mid-forties when he took over from the 93-year-old, deaf and blind Joaquin Balaguer, proceeded towards major reforms and led the country to one of the highest rates of growth in the world during his term.

In Guyana, Bharrat Jagdeo was in his mid-thirties when he succeeded Cheddi and Janet Jagan, both of whom had been in their 70s, and was chosen for his youthfulness and commitment to modern reforms.

He has twice defeated the 73-year-old opposition leader, Desmond Hoyte. P. J. Patterson was only 57 when he became prime minister and still had the energy and the openness of mind to understand the changes that were taking place globally in the 1990s and became the Caribbean's leading spokesperson on those changes.

The Anglo-Caribbean's oldest politician is actually George Price, former prime minister of Belize, who at 83 remains a ceremonial leader of the ruling party, and plans to run as a constituency candidate.

However, Price turned over party leadership and prime ministership to the 59-year-old Said Musa. Hubert Ingraham of the Bahamas has set an example that many could follow.

He became prime minister at 45, won two terms, and at 55, handed over the party leadership and did not stand for a third term.

LEADERSHIP GENERATION

At Mr. Seaga's age, he is clearly out of step with the present generation of Caribbean leaders.

This is the first generation of Caribbean prime ministers to have been largely educated at the University of the West Indies.

Whereas the first generation received higher education mainly in England and the United States, seven of the current prime ministers were educated at UWI. This includes Mr. Patterson.

What is critical here is that these leaders have been groomed within the Caribbean, have come through Caribbean institutions and are highly committed to Caribbean regionalism.

They are committed to region-building through the oldest institutions like West Indies cricket, mid-life institutions like UWI, to the newest institutions like the Caribbean Court of Justice.

Mr. Seaga's unrelenting attacks on the CCJ and threat to keep Jamaica out of it is symptomatic of the JLP's approach to regionalism.

From Bustamante's attacks on the West Indies Federation to Mr. Seaga's attacks on the CCJ, the JLP has taken a merely strategic approach to regionalism, pursued only to the extent that it helps Jamaica with little consideration for the Caribbean.

Mr. Seaga's antipathy to any real integration, insensitivity to the difficulties with Haiti and bad record on Cuba-Caribbean relations are all based on his JLP generation's Cold War conception and old mind-set.

The current Caribbean set of leaders is more highly educated than the previous. For instance, three have Ph.Ds and one is a medical doctor.

Ralph Gonsalves (St. Vincent and the Grenadines) has a Ph.D in Government and Kenny Anthony (St. Lucia) did his B.Sc in Government as well. They both lectured at UWI and Owen Arthur, of Barbados was a Researcher at UWI.

Interestingly, should Peter Phillips become Jamaica's prime minister, and there is a strong bet that he will, he would join the prime ministers who are educated at UWI, have a Ph.D, a degree in Government, and have lectured at UWI.

Maxine Henry-Wilson also studied and lectured in Government at UWI.

Mr. Seaga has said, in one of the manifesto documents, that he never did a course in politics or government.

Well, he should have. Caribbean leaders today have a stronger sense and more profound knowledge of the region's history, culture, institutions, circumstances of size, and strategies for positioning the region in the new global order. They would certainly have a different mind-set to that of Mr. Seaga.

GENERATION AND REGION

In fact, JLP leaders have traditionally coexisted badly with their Caribbean counterparts.

Sir Alexander was thought to have been intimidated by the intellect of Norman Manley and his cohorts, such as Eric Williams, Grantley Adams, and Cheddi Jagan, could not appreciate their visions of West Indian integration and was afraid that he would not be able to control them the way he liked to control others.

There is no leader in the Caribbean, English, Spanish or French, that one could say is a friend of Mr. Seaga.

YOUTHFUL ELECTORATE

The truth is that most, if not all Caribbean leaders would much prefer a PNP win at the polls for the simple fact that the PNP has been the stronger party on Caribbean regionalism. Mr. Seaga's friends within the Caribbean - Tom Adams of Barbados, Eugenia Charles of Dominica and the Haitian dictators - have all left the scene.

Everywhere in the Caribbean younger leaders are winning more elections than older leaders and parties and Governments are replacing their leaders for younger ones.

This makes sense for two main reasons. The world of the 1990s and 2000s is very different from the world of the 1980s and before.

Persons who have rigid personalities like Mr. Seaga also have rigid ideas and do not change easily. It will be a real challenge for him to understand today's world order and its values.

Secondly, the Caribbean has one of the most youthful populations in the world. The average age of the Caribbean population is lower than the world average.

The Caribbean's electorate is therefore comparatively young. It is this youthful electorate that is most estranged from politics and rigid and aged leaders are not going to excite them as obviously Mr. Seaga is not doing.