PRIME Minister and President of the People's National Party (PNP), P. J. Patterson, wants to change the Oath of Allegiance right before the next general election, something that could have been done at anytime in the last several years.

So that looks like a fake issue to me, something deliberately designed to distract the public.

What is not fake, however, is that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has suddenly found its voice on our local affairs after several years of silence and complicity in our growing indebtedness. And this also only weeks before the next general election.

In effect, the IMF report states that Jamaica is in severe fiscal crisis. Not only is the Bank of Jamaica (BoJ) losing billions, but the national debt is increasing tremendously along with its cost of servicing.

Our public sector debt of close to eight per cent is at least four times higher than what the IMF or World Bank, or any reputable economist, would describe as fiscally responsible in the management of any country's affairs.

Nevertheless, this is not what Mr. Patterson nor any PNP Government minister wants to talk about, because they consider the Oath of Allegiance a far more urgent matter.

No longer to the queen and her successors does Mr. Patterson wish to swear, but to the Jamaican Constitution and to the Jamaican people.

The policies of the PNP Government, however, have left Jamaica and her people, if not the Constitution, already in shreds.

So I hardly think that a bit of paper with our names on it instead of the queen's, is going to make the slightest piece of difference.

As things stand, we might be slightly safer leaving the queen's name in the oath although not even that has proven a safeguard to secure the rights, safety and prosperity of the Jamaican people.

It ought to be abundantly clear, therefore, that the fake issue of the Oath of Allegiance is nothing more than a red herring to distract people in advance of the coming general election.

It was cynically designed to divert attention away from the IMF's report, as well as that of Amnesty International.

No doubt Mr. Patterson and his cohorts are deeply grateful for this fortuitous circumstance in the timing of these reports, since there is hardly any time left for the public to digest either before polling day.

The PNP hope, therefore, that the public will be distracted by Mr. Patterson's usual black and white race argument, to say nothing of colonialism, so that the PNP can be returned to office without too much fuss.

Hollow promise

The facts are, however, that from the State of Emergency through to the Green Bay Massacre and Braeton the numbers of murders committed under a PNP administration have never been committed under any other.

This has been a consistent pattern of every PNP administration since Independence, so an oath to protect the Jamaican people from their lips is utterly hollow.

Also hollow is the promise in the just-released PNP manifesto to focus on the economy, so that jobs for Jamaicans can grow. If they knew how to do that they would have done it long ago.

Indeed, the PNP manifesto is so slim that it wobbled like a thin reed in the Prime Minister's hand. This was a poetic moment, somehow it seemed that justice had been done to the truth.

The immediate and urgent national task facing Jamaica is how to deal with the debt crisis created by the PNP. It must be brought down to manageable levels while moving the economy on a path of sustained growth, and avoiding default. That ought to be the first priority for any Jamaican Government.

This bunch of bunglers, however, having created the economic crisis in the first place, are equally inept at dealing with the widespread corruption which results from it.

It is unlikely that the public will, therefore, have more confidence about restoring them to office, than electing an entirely new Government to lead us out of this mess.

This is why the PNP have been pulling so many fake issues out of their hat recently ­ from baby coffins thwarted by the birth of a healthy baby, to Oaths of Allegiance stunningly irrelevant at this time, and the resumption of hanging, which by the way the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council has never said was illegal.

So why should the Prime Minster, therefore, need to promise to carry out the law?

When has the Privy Council prevented any hanging in Jamaica, except in circumstances where it would be unjust to do so? So much for justice where the PNP and this Prime Minister are concerned.

But the next election is not just about the economy, jobs, or justice.

It's also about a profligate governmental borrowing spree to build highways, to give away public funds for all manner of purposes, some of which smack of corruption, and favour PNP supporters who are heavy contributors to the party's campaign chest.

It should be noted, therefore, that the much-discussed Argentine debt ratio is, in fact, better than Jamaica's, since it is about 112 per cent, and ours is 140 per cent.

In smaller economics like Barbados and Costa Rica, the ratio is under 80 per cent. Nor does our debt figure include guaranteed debts like those of Air Jamaica, nor the billions in deferred financing, nor the billions guaranteed for NHDC, nor the CDs issued by the BoJ. The debt trap in Jamaica is, therefore, much worse that what is published, and is more in the order of $570 billion and growing. Definitely not the $500 billion officially admitted to.

Dr. Omar Davies' performance in managing the country's finances is therefore the worst of any Minister of Finance.

If the PNP wins the next election, I doubt he will have the guts to stay and face the difficult and tough decisions necessary to extricate the country from these debts, debts which have brought Jamaica to its knees. Indeed his performance is a blatant breach of fiduciary responsibility for which he should be held legally accountable.

While Dr. Davies and other members of the Government have been gloating recently about performance on exchange rate stability, new highways, and the surge in the number of motor cars and cellphones, they forgot all about jobs and education for the people of the country.

Too much of the country has now become dependent on hand-outs from the party in power, and silenced into submission because of it.

When the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) launched its manifesto, the liberal Jamaican press and the private sector immediately asked how the party planned to pay for it.

The JLP manifesto promises jobs, education, housing, functioning social services and the restoration of the Jamaican economy.

I can't help but notice, however, that although the PNP have now launched their manifesto not a single soul has asked the PNP about how they plan to pay for the promises contained in that document.

Does this silence connote disbelief in PNP promises, thus no one need bother about the cost? If so, the public would be wise to disabuse themselves of the notion that broken promises are any less costly than promises that are kept.

The fact is that the right policies and decisions will have to be taken to stop any further growth in the national debt, and bring it down to more manageable levels. Unless this is handled with the greatest skill and strong leadership, Jamaica's debt problem could explode with tremendous social and financial ramifications.

Expect this administration, therefore, to throw out any number of red herrings as the election comes closer.

The Jamaican economy is the issue the PNP Government dare not confront. Unprecedented joblessness is what they have spawned, and nationwide hopelessness is the result. I doubt, therefore, that the most skilful political machinations of the PNP will be able to bounce that issue off the table.