SPECIFIC PROSPECTS FOR JOB CREATION

TAKING INTO account the areas where we have made progress in restructuring and where we enjoy competitive advantages as well as existing and planned investments, there are reasonably good prospects for increased job creation in the following areas:

• Tourism and related activities;
• Information Communication Technology;
• Construction;
• Agriculture;
• Manufacturing and Agro-Processing;
• Professional, Personal and other Services;

The tourism sector, though encumbered by problems in the external environment, should soon find itself in a significantly improved situation as it relates to the supporting infrastructure and the range of attractions. Huge sums are being invested in roads, water supply and sewerage systems, airports, marinas and aerodromes, among other things. The main domestic impediment to it making a quantum leap is the high level of crime in Jamaica. If a significant dent can be made in the murder rate over the next two to three years then, provided the international environment improves, it can return to growth rates of six to eight per cent per year in stop-over visitor arrivals.

There is scope for even more rapid growth in cruise visitors and this will be enhanced by investments that are about to be made by the Port Authority of Jamaica in improving the facilities in Montego Bay and Ocho Rios. Word is that the upgrading of the Montego Bay cruise facility, together with the expansion of the Sangster International Airport will place that city in a position to become a home port for cruise vessels.

Tens of thousands of new jobs can be triggered by these developments. The completion of the remaining two segments of the North Coast Highway, together with Highway 2000 will allow for an expansion of the range of attractions for the tourism sector which will spur employment growth as well, and in places that are not now considered accessible to tourists.

The Information Communication Technology sector has suffered from weaknesses in the approach to its development and expansion, giving rise to a credibility problem. In spite of this, there has been an expansion in the employment level of the sector, which now stands at roughly 11,000. With more careful management from now on it should be possible, given the liberalisation of telecommunications, and the continuing interest of investors, to further expand activity and employment in the sector. Of particular importance is the scope for applying information technology in the quest to modernise the other sectors of the economy.

The construction sector, which recorded minimal growth of 0.5 per cent per annum in the 1989-2001 period, showed strong employment growth of nearly four per cent per annum over the same period. This dichotomy explains my query about the growth figures for the sector in an earlier column where I had indicated that data on output growth in the sector pointed to sluggishness, while cement consumption, among other inputs, had risen steadily. Having regard to the large infrastructure development programme that is being implemented, we can expect very strong growth in employment levels in the sector, at least in the next three to five years.

Agriculture is a sector where targeted efforts can create new job opportunities in non-traditional areas. These, however, are likely to run alongside further contraction in employment levels in traditional crops. This is clearly a sector where the continuing drive to raise efficiency levels and the pressures for further trade liberalisation will present major challenges.

There are early signs that the manufacturing sector is emerging from a long and difficult adjustment period. It is traditionally a sector with relatively high paying jobs, but over the review period the employment level fell from 133,800 in 1989 to 66,800 in 2001 -- a 50 per cent reduction. A major part of this decline occurred in the apparel industry.

This the most difficult sector in which to expand employment, for international competition is intense in manufacturing industries. A further impediment to the sector is our high cost of energy, relative to the efficiency with which we are able to convert raw materials into finished products.

However, opportunities exist for integrating the sector with tourism, agro-processing and telecommunications, while the apparel industry could recover partially by repositioning itself towards full package production in order to exploit the enhanced market access being provided by the USA.

Assuming that the other sectors discussed above experience growth and expansion, the personal, professional and other services sectors will continue to show dynamic growth and be the avenues for increased self-employment opportunities. The advent of out-sourcing as a tool for corporate restructuring in Jamaica has increased the range of activities where small businesses can be established. This trend will continue and the state can enhance the prospects for job creation from this source by improving the services that are now provided to people seeking to establish micro and small businesses. In a market economy, institutions that help to unleash the entrepreneurial spirit are a critical component in the drive to create jobs.