We are now at the start of what needs to be the most peaceful election in the history of Jamaica.

Both major political parties appear to be working hard to keep the election peaceful.

Both the JLP - who hope to move the country "From Pain to Gain" - and the PNP - who are "Advancing the Quality Society" - must remember, during every minute of this election campaign, that any incidence of crime/violence or corruption, associated with their party, may have a deciding effect on the swing voters.
Jamaicans want a new style of clean crime-free politics.
There are many swing voters out there just waiting to jump one way or another if the politics gets dirty.

What will make this the most peaceful election in the history of the country?

The 2002 election will be held

1. ...after the best preparation for a general election in the history of the country .. best list .. 1.3 million Jamaicans entitled to vote .. best bureaucracy to supervise elections .. excellent Director of Elections .. excellent members of the Electoral Advisory Committee… great planning .. much better than in most developed countries. Just consider the tremendous job done to recruit new and impartial staff to man the polling stations .. highly commendable. Just consider the first-time-ever strength and confidence shown by a Director of Elections who is sufficiently confident in his job to be pro-active and warn candidates in particular constituencies that they must get their supporters under control. This is not the game as it was played .. this is a better game. Under new rules that will allow the speedy voiding of individual constituency results from faulty voting.
2. ...with the most comprehensive Code of Political Conduct agreed by major parties.. a code which is having more bite than any of its predecessors due to willing adherence by the politicians, incredible media interest (No election in the history of the country will ever have enjoyed the depth of analysis and live coverage that the 2002 election is now enjoying in the media), and quick, fearless and far-reaching interpretations of the Code of Conduct from the strong, active and influential Ombudsman Blair.
3. … strong media and civic society leadership demanding a peaceful election, ethical campaigning and election practice. Politicians know that the identification of politicians with hooligans and gunmen will hurt them in these polls.
4. … a more proactive and effective police force. We have a good Commissioner of Police and I hope he will have the most organized police force ever for an election.
5. … with the advent of cellular phones, there will be no little ripple of unrest at any of the 7,000 polling stations that will not get media coverage.

What makes a constituency result democratic?

In the October 16th. General elections individual politicians need to think about whether the voting results in their constituency have, in the past reflected a voting picture representative of a democratic constituency.

These are the 9th general elections since our 1962 Independence and the 14th general elections since universal adult suffrage in 1944 (then only 32 constituencies).
Here are some interesting facts relating to the 13 general elections to date from 1944
1 Total votes cast 7.2 million
2 Total votes cast PNP 3.3 million … 46%
3 Total votes cast JLP 3.7 million … 51%
4 No party has ever won with more than 50% of total registered voter support .. the highest was the PNP in 1976 with 48%
5 If one arbitrarily believed that at least 10% of eligible voters would vote for each party in a contested constituency then there are 10 historical constituency results that break this arbitrary test of a democratic constituency ..
a. Portia Simpson (PNP) who got over 90% of the vote in St Andrew South Western in 1989, 1993 (100%!) and 1997. She has got more over 90% votes in a general election than any other politician.
b. Edward Seaga (JLP) in Kingston Western in 1980 and 1993.
c. The other 3 are PNP candidates .. Marjorie Taylor (1993) (Kingston Eastern and Port Royal), Phillip Paulwell (1997) (Kingston Eastern and Port Royal), and Omar Davies (1997) (St Andrew Southern).

I do NOT suggest that there has been any impropriety in any of these constituencies .. maybe these candidates really enjoy this overwhelming majority … But on a personal level, I wonder whether there is, in any group in Jamaica, in which at least one-person-in-ten that does not support each party?

Even if these results are democratically pure, one must question the historical and social circumstances that have excluded diversity of opinion from so many geographical areas of the country.

It would be a wonderful vote of confidence in the future of the country if politicians went out of their way to realise that a vote of over 90% for one party in a constituency is nothing other than a sign of social illness in their constituency.

If elections were voided for "social illness" then these results would be top voiding candidates!

A more accurate measure of a democratic constituency might well be one in which at least 30% of the electorate voted for each party. With that test many many more constituencies would fail the test !

Another measure of social illness is unusually high voter turnout. A voter turnout of 90% and above must be regarded as testing credibility. Jamaica has seen 18 constituency results reporting voter turnout in excess of 90% .. four results reported voter turnout of 100 or more %.

These top 4 were all in the constituencies of St Andrew Southern and St Andrew South Western . The obviously popular winners were Anthony Spaulding (twice), Hartley Jones and Portia Simpson.

Again I do not suggest any impropriety by any of these candidates .. but they must have been worried about the absence of plurality of views amongst their constituents.

It will be interesting to learn if the electoral authorities will consider these two tests of "social illness" as indicators of election results that should be voided on October 16 2002!

The test of democracy should not be limited to the integrity of the transactions within the physical confines of the polling station .. the test must also consider whether voters feel free to go to the polling station and exercise their vote.

What items are already on the desk of the new Prime Minister the morning after October 16?
These are not necessarily listed in terms of national priority nor has any effort been made to make the list comprehensive.

1. Crime and Violence
   The new government will get no honeymoon over the compelling need to reduce crime and fight the massive penetration of Jamaica by drug barons handling the transshipment of cocaine.
   The National Crime Report produced between the two major political parties and the PSOJ has NOT been acted upon with speed. It is on the desk of whoever is the Minister of National Security come election end. It is also on the desk of whoever will be the Shadow Minister of National Security, as well as on the desk of the leaders of civil society .. for solving crime, violence and drugs can only be done by an alliance of well thinking people.
   While the implementation delay may be understandable due to the campaigning activities, it must demand immediate attention the morning after the election results are in.
   There are 15 recommendations in that report .. dealing with reestablishing values amongst youth, strengthening parenting skills, looking at the judicial process, enhancing community action to fight crime, bringing in the guns, improving police effectiveness, reform of the JCF, special legislation to fight terrorism, reform of the police services commission and others.
   The PSOJ and I hope all civic organisations such as the Rotary Clubs will be right there the morning after elections demanding fast and comprehensive action on the items in The National Crime Report.

2. Transparency …
   In the fight to reduce corruption and waste, greater transparency is needed in public affairs and here are some suggestions to achieve this.

   • all elected officials at national and local level should declare their assets at once .. this should be done not only to the Corruption Prevention Commission but also TO THE PUBLIC. PNP Leader Patterson had already done this .. all other elected leaders should do this. Rotary Club members should demand this.

   • The intention of the Access to Information Act should be adopted at once so that every public sector institution should be prepared to make available to the public on request much more information than is now the case.

   • It is unlikely that political campaigns can continue to be financed only by private donations. Some state funding will be needed and at the same time it may be beneficial to support full disclosure of campaign donations.

   • The media in Jamaica need to be allowed greater latitude in reporting on public officials. The libel law needs to be changed in a number of ways .. in particular to move towards the American custom of allowing the media more room to report on public officials so long as there is no malice. The media so far, have done a bad job in persuading Jamaica that corruption is most likely to be reduced if there is an investigative press always trying to expose the misuse of public funds. The press can not do this if one slip can eliminate their organisations. It's a real problem to encourage a politician to change this law to allow himself to be put under greater scrutiny .. but it needs to be done.

   • Contracts with the government should be published on a web site and available to the public on a current basis. In July the National Contracts Commission's website showed 24 recommended contracts. Now all contracts over $4million are meant to go to the NCC for recommendation. It is surprising that only 24 contracts above $4million (about US$80,000) are approved in one whole month.

3. Recovering downtown Kingston
   … look at how to return Kingston to a place of pride .. we are like Columbia having ceded control of downtown to the lawless .. I share with you the experience I gained when shopping downtown recently for passion fruit and escallion .. drugs (ganja) openly sold on stalls on the street side in heaps .. roads blocked off by drug dealers ?? as if they were private driveways .. sewage flowing on the streets right beside food markets .. not one single policeman in the whole market area .. sidewalk vendors permanently fixing their shelves and cupboards to the side of shops .. stores that sell goods at below cost .. all this in addition to illegal vendors pushing legal vendors into inferior selling locations and seriously disrupting legal trade.

   The management of Downtown Kingston has collapsed. The management of our urban centres is poor to abominable. Thought must be given to putting the local councils into some form of receivership in order that major improvements can be carried out quickly and then the councils reestablished.. with fewer councils around the island … as already proposed by this government. The central government, the KSAC, the UDC, MPM, the KRC and all other connected bodies should be brought together under a committee headed by the new Prime Minister to ensure that change takes place quickly.

   The Parliament of our country is now sited within half a mile of an area over which the government appears to have no sovereignty. This is more important to deal with than constitutional reform.

   Put it at the top of the agenda. That is what the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce is trying to do.

4. The cost of elections
   the cost of elections can no longer be to the account of private business. This election will cost the parties at least $400 million to contest. This money will all have come in contributions from legitimate or illegitimate business activities. Although $400million is less than the street value of just one big cocaine bust off a go-fast boat, it is not a sustainable amount to be financed from business donations. An incoming government should consider placing a ceiling on the amount of money that can be spent by a party/candidate in an election and have most of this funded from the public purse.

5. AIDS
   None of us can be proud when we learn that after sub-Saharan Africa the Caribbean has the next highest incidence of AIDS/HIV. There has to be an enhanced public awareness programme to include business places to try and cut this increase as has been done in the Bahamas for example. If 12% of persons in prison are infected then there should be no argument about giving condoms to prisoners.

Are we progressing ?
I think we are.
Jamaica's Glory Days will be one big step nearer after
… the most peaceful election in our history.

The most peaceful and democratic election in our history could well be the entire stimulus needed to take the country back from hooligans and criminals and drug barons and despair. Job creation would follow.

Successful candidates in this election should not expect a honeymoon. October 17 is the day the country expects action a new Government to start dealing with the big issues that are already on the table.