More electoral drama

THE DRAMA continues. Having established a reversal in at least one major trend, volatility in the Stone Polls continues to emerge. A consistent trend over the 26 years of Stone political polling has been that the party which is successful in the General Election has led consistently in the polls for at least 6 months or more prior to those elections. In three of the five elections since 1976 this lead has been sustained for periods of over two years. This has led to the conclusion that the Jamaican voters make up their minds for some time before an election and stick to their decisions.

POLLING TRENDS - UPDATE

After being behind in the polls for 21 consecutive months since November 2000, the People's National Party (PNP) assumed the lead in August 2002 - two months prior to the next General Election. The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), on the other hand, has partially reversed its recent decline. From a 4 per cent increase in popular support when compared to its 1997 support, there is a modest increase to 6 per cent. These are two interesting developments. It suggests a consolidation of the 'Issue Voters' as the dominant sector in the electorate. It also shows flexibility among their ranks in the way they respond to the pollsters. These 'Issue Voters' are distinct from the party die-hards, whose combined support range from 19-32 per cent.

Separately, the 10-point increase in support for the PNP from the end of March to September this year, a period of just over 5 months, is not without precedent. In 1997, the PNP recorded a 13 per cent surge over a 4-month period from May-August. This occurred in the same year of the December 18 General Election, which the PNP won by a 17-point margin.

SEAT PROJECTIONS - UPDATE

The most up to date scenario is arrived at by comparing the September 14/15 Observer/Stone findings with the results of the 1997 General Election. There is also an assumption of a relative evenness in the national swing across constituencies. These figures, shown in the second and the last columns of Table 1, demonstrate that:

1. The PNP won the 1997 General Elections by a margin of 17 points (56 per cent to 39 per cent) over the JLP.

2. The September 14/15 Observer/Stone findings show the PNP with a margin of eight points (53 per cent to 45 per cent) over the JLP.

3. There is a 9 per cent decrease in the margin of victory by PNP over the JLP since the 1997 General Elections (from 17 per cent to 8 per cent).

4. The PNP with 53 per cent support is 3 points behind the 56 per cent support it received in the 1997 elections.

5. The JLP has increased its 1997 support by 6 points, from 39 per cent to 45 per cent.

6. The JLP now has an advantage in 18 seats.

7. The PNP now has an advantage in 33 seats.

8. The Third Parties have no advantage in any seat.

9. There are 9 Battleground Seats. These seats are too close to apportion - since the margins of victory of the PNP over the JLP fall within the 3 per cent margin of error.

10. Last week we had projections of 41 seats for the PNP and 16 seats for the JLP, with 3 battleground seats. This was based on the diminishing 4 per cent increase in support for the JLP since the 1997 elections. This has since been reversed and the lead has increased to 6 per cent.

The findings of the September 14/15 Stone Polls has modified the seat projections made last week. Those projections were based on the results of two separate polls whose findings had converged. (DK Duncan's The Gleaner September 24, 2002).

As we approach the October 2002 election day, any further change in the Party Standings in subsequent Stone Poll findings will continue to influence these projections. Other elements such as Candidate Appeal will be factored in.

VOTER TURNOUT - UPDATE

The same September Poll findings show that 70 per cent of those registered indicate a Party Preference. (JLP 32 - PNP 37 - NJA/NDM 0 - UPP 1). This is 4 per cent less than the 74 per cent who expressed their Party Preference in the August 18/19 Stone poll.

This downward movement is consistent with the insight revealed as a result of the study of another trend identified in the Stone Polls (D.K. Duncan, Gleaner September 17, 2002). An anticipated 12-point decrease between now and Election Day would project a voter turnout of approximately 60 per cent. This translates into a 50 per cent turnout of all those who are 18 years and over.

A PHOTO-FINISH

The latest polls were conducted before the announcement of the Election Date, the extremely successful PNP meeting at which the announcement was made, as well as the surfacing of the JLP/Bruce Golding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). The Polls also precede the September 30 Nomination Day activities.

We could be in for more drama and more volatility, resulting in outcomes ranging from a photo-finish to comfortable margins of victory for either of the two traditional parties on the night of Wednesday October 16, 2002.

ONE LOVE, ONE HEART.

* Former PNP General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP Administration of the 1970s. Dr. Duncan, a dental surgeon, recently established the D.K. Duncan Political Institute. E-mail: dktruth@hotmail.com