"I can see clearly now the rain has gone -- I can see all obstacles in my way."-- Johnny Nash

THERE ARE 11 "clear days" between now and election day, Wednesday October 16, 2002.

The pre-election hurdles such as the agony of the 'Guessing Game' are now part of the history of the 'September to Remember'. Before any party can lay claim to having 'gone clear' some obstacles have to be overcome.

They include the risks of the unfavourable exposure of candidates in the media, specifically the electronic media where they hope to present themselves with confidence and clarity. The demand on candidates by the media in this election has been unprecedented and fraught with difficulties and pitfalls. These may be identified in hindsight after the results of the election are in. Recovery time from any slip-ups is short. The talk shows and the recording of speeches at public meetings provide a basis for this. Portia Simpson Mil-ler's exposure and Mr. Seaga's 'rum talk' are specific examples. The coffin incident is another.

Another obstacle is that unforeseen issues may arise as a result of campaign strategies. The timing of those issues may give rise to unintended consequences, which could be negative or positive. The Golding issue is one example.

A third obstacle is the perennial fear of the possibility of election-related violence (aka political violence) and the perceived effect on the electorate. Most persons are agreed that election day activities should give no reason for the suspicion and mistrust as they did in the recent past. However, in the next 11 days, elements who are becoming less and less relevant to the process may want to reassert themselves. These include persons who have benefited inordinately and out of proportions to their skills from the present regime. On the other hand, their opposite numbers may be fired up by anticipating that they will replace those presently being fed from the trough.

LONG-TERM OBSTACLE

The systemic problem, which ultimately gives rise, to all these manifestations, like election-related violence, still remain. These problems are associated with the management and allocation of scarce benefits and spoils, which essentially gave birth and sustenance to the cancer of 'Two Party Political Tribalism'. Removing this major obstacle will be the principal task of the Jamaican people over the next two years. Using the Wolfe Report on Crime and Violence, the Kerr Report on Political Tribalism, and the latest document, the 'National Consensus of Crime and Violence' as a basis, we the people can make the long overdue move from the present 'Paralysis of Action'. The implementation of those fundamental reforms in our constitution that are absolutely necessary, even if not totally sufficient, to excise the cancer and exorcise this demon is now a real possibility.

SHORT-TERM OBSTACLES

The most immediate and short-term obstacle is the plan by the parties to bring out the voters on election day. In this planning exercise, the most efficient allocation of human and financial resources is the key to success. These decisions are guided by information derived from the targeted electorate -- in the first instance all those who are on the voters list -- since they are all potential voters. The information is garnered through word of mouth, from newspaper, radio and television reports and is inclusive of the way the media choose to shape these issues. The canvassing of the electorate by trained party workers and finally Public Opinion Polling concretise the relevant information.

The specific plans to bring out the voters who are favourable to a specific party on election day is mostly derived from party canvassers and national or constituency surveys done by the public opinion pollsters. This information directs the campaign team as to which constituency should be paid the most attention -- usually called the marginals or in some cases battleground seats. They are not necessarily one and the same although they may overlap. Constituencies with impregnable majorities or others seen as lost causes are usually given less attention than those perceived to be close contests.

The PNP uses a Mr. Bill Johnson, a professional pollster while the JLP uses any internal team. Both parties have used the Stone and Anderson Teams from time to time but are weary of confidentiality. The Observer newspaper uses the Stone Team for its published polls, while The Gleaner uses Don Anderson as its counterpart.

SEAT PROJECTIONS - UPDATE

At this time, based on the latest available published Observer/Stone Polls of September 14/15, 2002, the projected seat counts and constituency standings are JLP -- 18; PNP -- 33; Battleground seats -- 9. Third parties are not an electoral factor.

This poll was done two weeks ago and therefore do not reflect the effects of announcement of the date of elections, the PNP mass meeting at Half-Way Tree where the election date was announced, the JLP/Golding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), and the subsequent realignment of personnel from the leadership of the NDM. Nomination Day activities, and the start up of the final stages of the JLP campaign through their mass meetings which were delayed by weather conditions, occurred after these polls were conducted.

These seat counts and constituency projections were arrived at by comparing the results of the 1997 General Election with the September 14/15 Stone findings.

This comparison as shown in Table I (Page A9) demonstrates that:

The PNP won the 1997 General Election by a margin of 17 points (56% to 39%) over the JLP.

The September 14/15 Observer/Stone findings show the PNP with a margin of eight points (53% to 45%) over the JLP.

There is a 9% decrease in the margin of victory by PNP over the JLP since the 1997 General Election (from 17% to 8%).

The PNP with 53% support is three points behind the 56% support it received in the 1997 election.

. The JLP has increased its 1997 support by 6 points, from 39% to 45%.

Table II (Page A9) lists the 60 constituencies in descending order of the magnitude of the margins of victory by the PNP over the JLP in the 1997 election.

The first 33 constituencies listed 1 to 33 are the ones likely to be retained by the PNP. The next nine numbered 34 to 42 are those designated as 'battleground seats' at this time. The last 18 numbered 43 to 60 are those likely to be won by the JLP.

The main criteria used for apportioning these seats are:

The 6% increase in support for the JLP since the 1997 election.

The 9% of reduction in the margin of victory by the PNP since the 1997 Election -- from 17% in 1997 to 8% in the September 14/15 poll findings.

Twenty-three seats have definitely been decided and are not likely to change barring a major disaster.

These are listed from 1-16 for the PNP and from 54-60 for the JLP. Twenty-eight seats fall into the categories of marginals with advantage to one party or the other. Of those 28 the PNP has an advantage in 17 listed as 17-33. The JLP an advantage in 11 listed as 42-53 in Table II.

If the elections were called on September 15th the likely results would have the PNP with 53% of the popular votes and the JLP with 45%. The poll findings showed a potential voter turnout of 70% , but 60% turnout is more likely if polling trends hold.

As we approach the October 2002 Election Day, any change in the party standings in subsequent poll findings will continue to influence these projections. Other elements such as candidate appeal have to be factored in.

THE NDM FACTOR

The return to the election campaign of Bruce Golding, Wayne Chen, Chris Tufton, Russell Hammond among others is a positive for the JLP. Wayne Chen could fortify NE Manchester for the JLP, while Hammond could move W Westmoreland from the category of being a safe PNP seat. Brascoe Lee's position could adversely affect the JLP in South Trelawny. Michael Stern should continue to pick up more PNP votes than JLP votes in NW Clarendon. This would be to the advantage of the JLP's Cliff Stone. Shaun Reynolds, former NDM Vice President and unsuccessful aspirant for the PNP, if active, should assist the PNP in W. Hanover. Another former Vice President, Barbara Clarke, who ran for the NDM in NC St Andrew in 1997 will now contest the same seat for the PNP without success. Larry Robertson, the Former NDM Deputy Secretary, will assist Donald Rhodd as his campaign manager to consolidate his victory in East Portland.

The only NJA/NDM candidates likely to make a modest impact are likely to be Al Miller in East St Andrew and Michael Stern in NW Clarendon. A positive showing by the JANU's Rev. Al Miller would be to the advantage of the PNP's Colin Campbell.

OTHER FACTORS

The UPP's Antonnette Haughton-Cardenas will attract some support but not enough to affect the PNP in Central St. Mary.

Overall the G2K roadshow should assist the young JLP professionals in gaining valuable electoral campaign nationally. They had a successful baptism in the NE St Ann By-Election of March 2001.

The PNPYO and the PNP's Professionals, the Patriots are engaged in a high profile media campaign. With the kind of road work carried out by the PNPYO in the NE St Ann By-election, they could be an effective counter to the G2K.

Gender issues have not been highlighted although the PNP has the advantage of 13 female candidates to the JLP's 6.

In the area of new candidates the JLP has nominated 33 while the PNP nominated 23. Without access to constituency polls it is difficult to do an overall assessment of the impact of these candidates in their respective constituencies. Name recognition, however, favours the PNP.

The Trade Union leadership is missing except for Pearnell Charles and Ruddy Spencer from the JLP with the PNP being represented by Donald Buchannan.

BIG CAPITAL IS NOT REPRESENTED

Attorneys-at-law continue to be well represented. There are about 12 of them. The significant number of candidates contesting the elections on 3 or more occasions suggests a trend towards career politicians.

Eleven clear days remain. The rains are going. Most obstacles can be seen. However, the old adage reminds, "there is many a slip between the cup and the lip". Unforeseen obstacles haunt the parties. We could be in for more electoral drama, especially if the polls continue to show volatility. The prospects of a photo finish is still on the horizon.

Former PNP General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP Administration of the 1970s. Dr. Duncan, a dental surgeon, recently established the D.K. Duncan Political Institute. Email: dktruth@hotmail.com