The JLP's 'Golding' opportunity
Ian Boyne, Contributor

Rudolph Brown/ Staff Photographer Opposition Leader Edward Seaga, left, Audley Shaw, Bruce Golding and Olivia 'Babsy' Grange following the reunion at the Jamaica Labour Party's Belmont Road headquarters.

The return of Bruce Golding to the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), has provided ample opportunity for the display of sloppy analysis, philosophical naiveté, distorted thinking, emotional invective and plain score-settling. The University of the West Indies (UWI) has not been exempt.

Let's begin with some assertions which, in my view, are unassailable. The courting of Bruce Golding by the JLP was an act of desperation, however brilliantly conceived. If the JLP propaganda line that the Government's performance has been an absolute disaster and that this Government has been the worst since Universal Adult Suffrage was credible to the people, there would be no need to clutch for a Bruce Golding. This is not to say that Golding might never have returned - some time in the future. But there would be no haste to have him on the team before October 16.

The horror of the prospect of yet another defeat for Edward Seaga forced him to make the humble accommodation to the formerly estranged Golding. But however humiliatingly we want to put it and whatever the Seaga detractors say, it cannot be denied that for Edward Seaga to succeed in getting Bruce Golding, who is no wimp or intellectual pushover, to change his mind on something that he has been so adamant about is a significant negotiating triumph for Seaga. And Seaga has done this without conceding any of his own oft-stated fundamental principles. This master stroke of Seaga in the virtual 90th minute of the political football game gives cause for applause.

Which is precisely what the Golding bashers will use to buttress their case that Golding has sold out, has prostituted himself, has renounced his principles, has proven untrustworthy etc. Rigorous thinking is not a forte of many of us, even some of those from the UWI. We think in terms of zero-sum. We engage frequently in 'either-or' thinking rather than 'both-and' thinking. Subtleties and nuances escape us who are enslaved to black-and-white, linear thinking. Our intellectual malaise is not unconnected to our appalling inability to resolve disputes, to develop win-win positions, to work our compromises and strategic alliances and to engage in serious give-and-take. (Unfortunately, we didn't learn this skill from the British).

Let's analyse the Golding return to the JLP seriously. I grant you that there is an election to be won and lost and that this is uppermost in the minds of some commentators who can't at this point afford the luxury of independent, dispassionate intellectual thought. I am under no such strictures.

Let's admit early that the seven-point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), amounts to very little. The PNP would have no fundamental problem with any of those points, especially as some merely involve an "examination" of the issues. Indeed, the memorandum invites cynicism because an MOU would give the impression that something really significant is being agreed to by the parties. In other words, people expected that the MOU would extract tangible concessions from the JLP and not be a statement of intent. I can understand why some people who are myopic would feel a sense of let-down, even betrayal by this MOU. Mr. Seaga himself quite insensitively and bluntly told Carol Narcisse of the radio programme, Nationwide, that he has conceded nothing - and he was absolutely right.

So if Eddie Seaga, true to his nature critics would say, has conceded nothing, then isn't it Bruce Golding who has "bowed" in going back to "dutty politics"?

Look at this scenario. Through bitter experience Golding has realised that reforms of the political system - which need urgent attention - will not come any time soon through third parties. He realises that he seriously miscalculated the third party option and that his best chance of having his ideas and principles implemented is through one of the two political parties. Stephen Vasciannie says he has for long been seeking to go back to the JLP.

Since when is reconciliation a bad word? What's wrong with longing to go back to your roots? Human beings learn by experience. There are, of course, some dogmatic fanatics who refuse to learn from experience and who, when they stumble on truth, brush themselves off and continue right on their self-deluded journey. Rational human beings learn from experience. It is an honourable thing to publicly acknowledge you made a blunder, though it might be an embarrassing thing.

So the man goes through an enormous internal struggle, finally leaves the leadership of the NDM which he formed and goes into the farther reaches of the political jungle. (I say farther reaches, for all the third parties are in the jungle and have proven to be an absolute waste of time)

He sees a weakened, chastened JLP whose leadership is not able to capture the imagination of the Jamaican people - for whatever reason. In short, he sees an opportunity for himself.

There is a vacuum. People are now willing to listen to him. People are more humble. Some critics of the Golding have been saying that the JLP has made no concessions and it's the same old, tribalised party, therefore what sense does it make for Bruce to return to a party that he himself left and harshly criticised?

But it's not the same party, for, you see, experience has also taught the JLP some things. The very fact that that party has returned for the "dead wood" it cast aside years ago speaks volumes. Defeating P.J. Patterson is proving not as easy a task as the JLP had calculated and Seaga himself realises that, however unjustified it might be, large numbers of the Jamaican people simply do not like him and don't consider him an alternative to P.J. Patterson.

Seaga is not the narcissistic fool he is projected to be. Nor do I believe that he has a Samson Complex and prefers to take down the whole house with him. Seaga is genuinely committed to his mission and he has a philosophical vision. I believe he is sincerely, deeply interested in the welfare of the Jamaican people. He has a Messianic Complex and is not the classic narcissist or a Machiavellian politician.

So Golding goes back to a JLP, which has invited him - indeed, begged him - to come back. His credibility takes a battering before the election. The media pour scorn on him (look at how many unfavourable column inches have been devoted to him and how many have lashed him on the talk shows). But he stands with the embattled Labourites against the Goliath of the PNP election machinery. If the JLP is defeated, as all the polls indicate, Golding will emerge to Labourites as a selfless, sacrificial, courageous leader who did not opportunistically shun his party at its darkest hour and time of greatest need. Seaga will remember him for his loyalty and good works. The Labourites will rally around him for the critical support which he provided, offering them a glimmer of hope at the last moment.

It is not likely that Edward Seaga would stick around long after an electoral defeat. And Golding would be his choice as successor. Audley Shaw, Pearnel Charles and Mike Henry know that once Seaga anoints Bruce as the man to carry the mantle, it's all over.

Seaga might be unpopular with many Jamaicans but not among Labourites. Never forget that fact. Don't believe that the loud-mouthed, media-supported dissidents represent any significant element in the JLP. Bruce would then be able to fashion the JLP in his own image and likeness. And within the next few years, with an established party machinery and network behind him he would pose a serious challenge to the PNP.

Bruce is not thinking October 16. For the first time he has a real opportunity to have state power within five years, which is not a long time. Whatever happens on October 16, Bruce Golding cannot lose. History will absolve him, and the short-sighted will see the game as it unfolds. Those with vision can see it now.

Golding's return has energised Labourites, restored hope and buoyed confidence. You can't estimate the value of this psychologically. Watch Half-Way Tree this afternoon.

A demoralised JLP would have no chance against the confident, cheerful PNP with enormous resources. Bruce Golding represents the JLP's golden opportunity. Eddie Seaga pulled it off, let the records show.

Even if it is throwing a dead cat on the PNP deck, as disillusioned former Golding colleague Stephen Vasciannie crudely puts it, it keeps hope alive in the breasts of JLP troops, and that has enormous value. Or, put it this way - there is nothing better that the JLP could do at this time.

Of course, it is a tacit admission on the part of Edward Seaga that he cannot win this election alone. The "One Don" has, however reluctantly, surrendered the title.

There is something else which must be said and admitted by even Labourites. Significant credit must be given to P.J. Patterson and the PNP electoral machinery. Maxine Henry-Wilson and Paul Robertson should be congratulated by even the JLP campaign managers, if privately.

Remember the gas riots and the many issues dubbed scandals, the many political hot potatoes which daunted this Government? And think of the serious challenge of youth unemployment, under-employment and high levels of frustration which exist in this country. Who would have thought that the PNP would still be in the electoral race at this time, let alone to be ahead?

It is either P.J. Patterson is really a formidable, highly skilled leader despite his lack of charisma, and backed by a superb electoral management team, or the JLP leadership is seriously wanting. Or the Jamaican people are just damn fools. Or - the polls are wrong. We will find out soon.

In all of this I rather suspect that the intellectually sharp, now strategically focused Bruce Golding is the one looking beyond the immediate to the wider horizon. When Both P.J. Patterson and Edward Seaga are off the political scene and the myopic commentators are overtaken by history, with the NDM long buried, it will be Golding's turn to test the PNP electoral juggernaut.