THE OBSERVER/STONE Poll continues to show volatility. Over a period of 11 days (Oct. 3 to Oct. 13), the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has seen a five per cent swing in their favour move to 16 per cent and then back to seven per cent. Over the 25 years of political polling by the Stone Organisation this kind of volatility has never occurred. In a matter of three days the swing against the People's National Party (PNP) moved from 16 per cent to the present seven per cent (See Table 1). The effect of this swing is that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) moved from a projected 33 to 27 majority in the seat count to the present seat projection of 23 seats and 37 seats for the People's National Party (PNP). What started out, at the end of March and continued to the middle of August, as reasonable volatility has ended up one day before the polling as inexplicable, at least for the time being. The logic of this volatility, one could argue, is that the polls could reverse itself again between October 13th and the October 16th. Only time and the results of the October 16th 2002 election will tell. A photo finish in the October 16, 2002 General Election is therefore still possible. The People's National Party (PNP) won the last general elections by a margin of 17 points over the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). The most recent Observer/Stone poll, which was conducted between October 12 - 13, 2002, shows the PNP with a 10 point lead over the JLP. Therefore, at this time there is a seven-percentage point swing in favour of the JLP since the December 1997 elections. (See table 1). Table 1 also shows that the JLP has increased its support amongst registered voters by six points when the poll findings are again compared to the 1997 General Election results. The seven-point swing includes these six points as well as a one-point decrease in voter support for the PNP over the corresponding period.

When this seven-POINT SWING is used as a PREDICTOR, the likely results of a General Election held on October 14th would have been 23 seats for the JLP and 37 for the PNP. (See table 2) This is just two days before the actual elections are due to be held on Wednesday, October 16, 2002.

CONSTITUENCY PROJECTIONS - METHODOLOGY

The seat-count and constituency projections are arrived at by comparing the results of the 1997 General Elections with the October 12/13 Stone findings. (See Table 1)

Table 2 lists the 60 constituencies (numbered 1 - 60) in descending order of the magnitude of the margins of victory by the PNP over the JLP in the 1997 elections.

As stated in my Articles of October 4th and 15th, 2002, twenty-three seats have definitely been decided and are not likely to change barring a major disaster, 16 for the PNP and seven for the JLP. These are highlighted as SAFE seats in the table and chart. (Constituencies nos. 1 - 16 for the PNP and nos. 54 - 60 for the JLP)

As indicated in yesterday's article, the most appropriate predictor at this time is the overall swing - (Seven points as at Oct.13). Using this predictor there are ten BATTLEGROUND seats (too close to call), constituencies nos. 36 - 45 as shown in Table 2. In this case, the number of battleground seats is arrived at by including all those seats with a PNP margin of victory in the 1997 elections ranging from 4 to 10 points, that is seven plus or minus three. This would leave 19 seats (constituencies nos. 17 - 35) where the PNP would have the advantage and eight for the JLP (constituencies nos. 46-53).

The overall count (outside of the 10 battleground seats) would be 35 PNP and 15 JLP as shown in Table 2 and Chart 2.

Without applying a three per cent margin of error either way, all constituencies with a margin of victory for the PNP of less than seven points in the last election would go to the JLP. In the converse all constituencies above the seven-point swing would be retained by the PNP. The result would be 23 for the JLP (constituencies nos. 38 - 60) and 37 for the PNP (constituencies nos.1 - 37).

The pollsters returned to the field over the last few days. Their findings have now been published. The next move is for the registered voters of Jamaica to complete their own poll.

VOLATILITY AND REVERSALS

During September, the relative party standings seem to have been holding. However, the findings of the last three Observer/Stone Polls all conducted over a period of less than two weeks represent dramatic reversals in the opinions of the registered voters. This volatility emerged since the findings of the poll conducted at the end of March 2002. When the findings of the period Dec 1997 to March 2002 is compared to those of March 2002 to present it could be argued that the Jamaican electorate might be becoming much more sophisticated. With yesterday's poll findings, especially that of the Stone Team, the results of today's poll may answer some puzzling questions.

ELECTION NIGHT Table 2 can be useful to readers who wish to track aspects of the results after the polls are closed on Election Day. The predictor that is recommended to be used is the latest reported overall swing. This swing is now seven per cent. Any constituency with a PNP margin of victory of over seven per cent is likely to go the PNP. In the converse any constituency with a PNP margin of victory of seven per cent and less is likely to go to the JLP. Also remember, that the JLP won 10 seats in the last election. These are listed from nos.51 to 60 in this table. If there is going to be change of Government, they will need to win another 21 seats. In the main, these 21 constituencies should come from, nos. 28 to 50. If at any time three or more of the constituencies, which are listed from 28 to 60 are declared winners for the PNP you may with confidence declare victory for the People's National Party. If the JLP is declared the winner in nine or more of the constituencies listed from 17 to 37 then you may consider declaring them the next Government.

Unforeseen obstacles continue to haunt the parties. We could be in for more electoral drama, especially if the voting on Election Day reflects the volatility of the polls. The prospect of a photo finish, although diminished by the findings of the October 11-13 Stone Poll, hinges on the VOLATILITY FACTOR.

One Love, One Heart.

Former PNP General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP Administration of the 1970s. Dr. Duncan, a dental surgeon, recently established the D.K. Duncan Political Institute. Email : dktruth@hotmail.com