THE NATION heads to the polls today in the 14th general election since Universal Adult Suffrage in 1944, the ninth since Independence in 1962, the first of the 21st century. From all indications, a heavy voter turnout is expected, correcting the dip experienced in the last elections. Jamaica has consistently had higher voter turnout than most of the older, larger, more established democracies of developed countries.

Hopes for a peaceful election have been jolted by incidents of political violence, particularly in the last few weeks of the campaign. But thankfully the level of violence of the bloody 1980 election has been avoided. Now that it is time to vote we urge everyone to keep the peace through today and thereafter.

There are similarities between 1980 and 2002 in the long unofficial warm-up campaign before the date was announced. But the sharp ideological divide of 1980 is absent from this contest. By 8:30 tonight we should know the results.

The machinery for ensuring a free and fair election, both on the official side and from the engagement of civil society, is perhaps the best ever. The EAC/EOJ, demonstrating vigorous authority and independence, has declared intention to both halt and void irregular polling anywhere it occurs, and the Constituted Authority appointed by the Governor-General is in place to do its work as necessary. Losers should be able to quickly and graciously concede defeat.

There is very little ideological difference between the two centrist major parties. The process of market-driven globalisation has done much to eliminate such differences both at home and abroad. The leaders' debates did very little to help voters spot significant differences for choice on this election day. Votes will largely come down to matters of the perception of performance and of leadership capability, and trust and confidence. In this regard the massive, and sometimes ugly, advertising campaign and the 'street massives' have done little to enlighten or to sway choice.

A result to anticipate tonight is the proportion of the votes picked up by the various third parties, none of which is expected to win a seat. Even in loss, those margins will provide a valuable index to the mood of the electorate to contemplate breaking out of the JLP/PNP two-party dominance.

A fairly small block of undecided/swing voters will disproportionately determine outcomes today. The huge swings, which have dogged elections since at least 1976, creating a super Government side and a tiny Opposition, are not expected in this election. A more balanced Parliament, we believe to the greater good of the country, is expected to emerge.

Huge amounts of money have been available from unknown sources for this campaign, much of it in unsavoury ways. The issue of campaign financing is already on the agenda and will certainly be a matter to be dealt with in the next parliamentary cycle. Tomorrow the real issues of governance begin for those declared winners tonight, against a backdrop of major social and economic problems which no number of campaign promises could have concealed.

THE OPINIONS ON THIS PAGE, EXCEPT FOR THE ABOVE, DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE GLEANER.