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CONSTITUENCY PROFILES: ST. JAMES WEST CENTRAL

JLP has the edge
Anthony Myers
Contributor

ST. JAMES West Central was created in 1976 when the number of constituencies for the parish was increased from three to four.

The constituency boundaries were redrawn and three new constituencies namely ­ St. James East Central, St. James West Central and St. James Southern ­ were named along with St. James North Western.

The constituency of St. James West Central is bounded by the following:

From where the northern boundary of Eden Estate meets the Great River, thence easterly along this boundary to the western boundary of Wiltshire Estate. It then goes north-easterly along the southern boundary of Wiltshire Estate to the northern boundary of the Anchovy Bottom Estate and north easterly along this boundary to a track. From there it goes south-easterly along this track to where it meets parochial road No. 29, Montpelier, northerly along this road to where it meets parochial road No. 27, Montpelier.

From there it travels south eas terly along parochial road No. 27, Montpelier, to where it meets parochial road No. 16 at Turtle Pond, then to Wales Pond, then to parochial road No. 10, Montpelier. It then goes south easterly along parochial road No. 10, Montpelier, to the northern boundary of Concordia, then easterly to parochial road No. 35, Springfield, and northerly along this parochial road to where it meets parochial road No. 15. From there it travels southerly along this parochial road to the southern boundary of Retirement, easterly along this boundary and then northerly along the eastern boundary to parochial road No. 21 Springfield. It then travels westerly along this road to the John's Hall main road, north-westerly along this main road to where it meets parochial road No. 24, St. James, northerly along this road to where it meets Adelphi main road, easterly along this main road to where it meets Timber Road, and north-easterly along Timber Road to where it meets parochial road No. 4, Marley, at the northern boundary of Kirkpatrick Hall then northerly along parochial road No. 4 Marley through Leogan, Moreland and Blue Hole to parochial road No. 34, Rose Hall. It then goes northerly along this road to the northern boundary of Flower Hill, south-easterly along this boundary to where it meets Flower Hill Avenue (parochial road No. 13B), westerly along this main road to a track leading to Hartfield Property opposite the Salt Spring School, then northerly along this track to where it meets Parochial Road No. 10, St. James. From there it goes south-westerly along this parochial road to where it meets the Green Pond main road, easterly along this road to the eastern boundary of Farm Pen, southerly along the eastern boundary of Farm Pen to the northern boundary of Cathe-rine Hall Pen, westerly along the northern boundary of Catherine Hall Pen to the Eastern Montego Bay boundary, south-easterly along this boundary and then westerly in an imaginary line to Clarke Street, along Clarke Street to the Mount Salem main road, westerly along this main road to Cottage Road, along Cottage Road to Barnett Street, along Barnett Street to Fustic Road, along Fustic Road to the Railway Line, along the Railway Line to the Barnett River, along the Barnett River to the sea. It then goes southerly and westerly along the sea coast to where the Great River enters the sea then south-easterly along the Great River to the starting point.

Of the five contested elections 1976-1997, the PNP won in 1976, 1989, 1993 and 1997; the JLP in 1980. In 1997, Arthur Nelson, who defeated Anthony Lewin (JLP) by a majority of 1,776 in 1993, had to fight off a strong challenge from the then Mayor Gilchrist in the 'battle of the Arthurs' for the candidacy of the constituency. The 1997 voters' list increased by 6,014 (39.5 per cent) over the 1993 list.

With such a significant increase in registered voters a PNP victory was not on the books among many pundits. Arthur Nelson proved them wrong as he polled 5,873 votes to defeat by 627, the JLP's Anthony Lewin who polled 5,246 votes.

The NDM candidate Ainsley Blair polled 618 votes. This upcoming contest is clearly between the PNP and the JLP as the NDM/UPP will both be overwhelmed and therefore not a factor to reckon with in this constituency.

With the voters' list before May 31 showing a 7.7 per cent increase in registered voters over the 1997 list and the incumbent Arthur Nelson not seeking re-election, the JLP in spite of a change of candidate, has an excellent chance of denying the PNP a victory which could put that party ahead on election night. In a close contest the JLP clearly has the edge.

GENERAL ELECTION (PARLIAMENTARY) - PROJECTION

2002

 

E/L

22,864
A/B 12,450 (54.5%)
PNP 6,096 (48.96%)
JLP 6,354 (51.04%)
Majority (JLP) 258

GENERAL ELECTIONS (SUMMARY) 1976-1997

1976

 
E/L 12,612
B/C 10,464
A/B 10,433
R/B 31
Francis Tulloch, PNP 6,708
Winston Watt, JLP 3,725

1980

 
E/L 15,226
B/C 13,199
A/B 13,169
R/B 30
Clive Dobson, PNP 5,285
Carl Rhoden, JLP 7,884

1983

 
E/L 15,226
Carl Rhoden, JLP (elected unopposed by acclamation)
   
   
   
   

1989

 
E/L 17,184
B/C 13,035
A/B 12,816
R/B 219
Patrick A. Rose-Green, PNP 7,651
Winston Watt, JLP 5,165

1993

 
E/L 15,215
B/C 8,735
A/B 8,654
R/B 81
Anthony D. Lewin, JLP 3,439
Arthur Nelson, PNP 5,215

1997

 
E/L 21,229
B/C 11,804 (55.6%)
A/B 11,737 (99.4%)
R/B 67 (0.6%)
Arthur Nelson, PNP 5,873 (50.0%)
Anthony Lewin, JLP 5,246 (44.7%)
Ainsley Blair, NDM 618 (5.3%)

NOTE:

 
E/L: Electors on List
B/C: Ballots Cast
A/B: Accepted Ballots
R/B: Rejected Ballots
   
   

Anthony Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's National Party.


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