THE CONSTITUENCY of St. Thomas Western is comprised within the area bounded by the following:

From a point where the Adams River touches the Portland parish boundary south-easterly along the Adams River to the right arm of the Morant River, southerly along this river to the Bagaboo Gully, easterly along the Bagaboo Gully to Campbell's River, southerly along this river to its source, south-easterly in a straight line to the top of the hills at high peak, along the top of the hills to Dunrobin where it meets a bridle path, along this bridle path to the Plantain Garden River, along this river to the main road of Sunning Hill, along this main road to a road coming from Citron Valley Old Works, along this road to the Burrowfield Road, along this road to Thornton, along the Burrowfield/Thornton Road to No. 40 Bridle Road along this bridle road to where it meets the Spring Garden main road, along this main road to where it meets the Seaforth/Morant Bay main road, along this main road to the north-western boundary of Morant Estate, along this boundary to the Johnson River, along this river to the Oliver Bridge on the Morant Bay/Kingston main road, along this main road to Patterson Spring, along this spring to where it enters the sea, along the seacoast to the St. Andrew parish boundary, along this parish boundary to the Portland parish boundary, along the Portland parish boundary to where it meets the Adams River.

Of the 12 contested parliamentary general elections in St. Thomas Western -- 1944 to 1997 -- the JLP won in 1944, 1949, 1959, 1962, 1967, 1972, 1980 and 1989 -- eight times to the PNP's four -- 1955, 1976, 1993 and 1997. The JLP as shown in the General Elections Summary 1944-1997 has dominated elections in the St. Thomas Western constituency losing in 1955 by 957, the Farmers' Party candidate, Sam H. Reid, polling 992 votes, thus splitting the JLP support.

In 1976 the JLP lost St. Thomas Western for the second time in 32 years when the PNP's Selvin Dewar polled 7,489 votes to defeat by a mere 610 votes, Patrick Atkinson, JLP, who polled 6,879 votes.

The PNP 17 years later won a decisive victory when George Anthony Hylton by polling 7,478 votes, defeated by a majority of 2,399, incumbent JLP candidate Errol Anderson, who polled 5,079 votes. It was said in JLP quarters that the results could have been much closer had not some 60 of the 111 polling stations opened late, 27 at noon and the last one at 4.30 p.m.

The outcome of the 1997 general election could give some credence to the JLP's 1993 allegation, as the PNP's majority was drastically reduced, moving from 2,399 to a mere 468. On the other hand, it could also be argued that in 1993 the PNP was having its second term under the leadership of a new party president, P.J. Patterson, then dubbed "the fresh prince". The PNP was also enjoying a massive national swing as the JLP experienced its worst defeat winning only eight of the 60 seats.

The 1997 general election would have been more competitive as the PNP sought to win an unprecedented third term and to add to the difficulty of the task, the JLP was represented by a member of the Lightbourne family (Dorothy Lightbourne), undoubtedly a household name in St. Thomas Western.

The replacement of Dorothy Lightbourne as the JLP candidate in the upcoming general election has badly affected the JLP's support in this constituency. In spite of this, the incumbent has his hands full in an attempt to win the seat for three consecutive terms.

St. Thomas Western is a marginal JLP seat which that party must win in order to form the next government. Can the JLP maintain its lead to the tape? All available data point to a JLP victory in St. Thomas Western.

General Elections (Summary) 1944-1997 ST. THOMAS WEST

GENERAL ELECTION (PARLIAMENTARY) PROJECTION 2002

Anthony Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's National Party.