MANCHESTER 
                    North East must be regarded in the upcoming general election 
                    as Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) territory built by Audley Shaw, 
                    the incumbent MP. By the Constituencies (Boundaries Order) 
                    1966 made by the Governor-General under Section 67 of the 
                    Constitution of Jamaica and which came into operation on January 
                    3, 1967, the number of constituencies was increased from 45 
                    to 53.
                  
The 
                    parish of Manchester was provided with an additional constituency 
                    bringing the total number to four. The boundaries were redrawn 
                    and new constituencies were created, namely - Manchester Southern, 
                    North Western, Central and North Eastern.
                  
Of 
                    the seven contested Parlia-mentary General Elections (1967-1997) 
                    in Manchester North Eastern, the JLP won six to one for the 
                    People's National Party (PNP). There is no doubt that this 
                    seat based on voting patterns since 1997 is consistent in 
                    its support of the JLP. The PNP's only victory was in 1989 
                    when, in a very close contest, Calvin Lyn defeated Audley 
                    Shaw (JLP), by 210 votes.
                  
In 
                    1993 when the PNP won 52 of the 60 constituencies islandwide 
                    including three in Manchester, the JLP regained control of 
                    Manchester North Eastern as Audley Shaw defeated Kenneth C. 
                    Neita (PNP), by 795 votes. For Audley Shaw to have won this 
                    seat in 1993 speaks volume for his adeptness at marshalling 
                    support and out-generaling his opponents. This was further 
                    borne out by his putting to rest any doubt that might have 
                    been in the minds of political pundits as to who rules in 
                    Manchester North East. By polling 6,965 votes compared to 
                    his two opponents - Errol Gentles (PNP), 5,568 and Wayne Chen 
                    (NDM), 1,851 - he once again demonstrated his capacity to 
                    defy great odds in turning back the challenge of two formidable 
                    candidates. His margin of victory over the PNP candidate (1,397), 
                    was a 75.7per cent increase on his 1993 majority.
                  
The 
                    incumbent Audley Shaw is undoubtedly an excellent representative 
                    of the people of Manchester North Eastern and it will be extremely 
                    difficult for any of his challengers in the upcoming general 
                    election to deny him a third consecutive term. Manchester 
                    North Eastern - JLP territory - built by Shaw.
                  
GENERAL 
                    ELECTIONS (PARLIAMENTARY) - PROJECTION 2002