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CONSTITUENCY
PROFILE:
ST CATHERINE WEST CENTRAL
Should
be back in JLP hands
Anthony
Myers
Contributor
THE
DATA point to a JLP victory in St. Catherine West Central
which should once again be safely in the hands of the JLP
after the general election.
By
the Constituencies (Boundaries) Order 1976 made by the Governor-General
under Section 67 of the Constitution of Jamaica and which
came into operation on November 24, 1976 the number of constituencies
was increased from 53 to 60. St. Catherine West Central was
among the newly-created constituencies as the number of seats
in the parish was increased from five to seven.
Four
of five contested parliamentary general elections in St. Catherine
West Central 1976-1997 were won by the JLP. In 1976 and 1980,
the JLP candidate Enid Bennett, who had previously defeated
Keith Cousins (PNP), in 1967 and Seymour Green (PNP), in 1972
in close contests, trounced Melvin Woodfine (PNP), by 3,478
and 7,073 majorities. In 1989 Enid Bennett had a comfortable
1,090 majority over Enoch Blake (PNP). The writing was on
the wall as in 1993 the JLP incumbent, blessed with an abundance
of luck, retained her seat by a mere 85 votes over the PNP
candidate Dr. Trevor Dewdney. Had Marlene Elliot not run as
an Independent candidate, polling 1,685 votes, the majority
of which would have gone to the PNP, Enid Bennett's outstanding
political career would have ended in defeat. Having represented
the constituencies of St. Catherine Central/West Central for
seven consecutive terms (the 1983 election inclusive) this
distinguished champion of the people gracefully retired from
representative politics in 1997.
Dr.
Kenneth Baugh who had the distinction of defeating Howard
Cooke (PNP), in 1980 in St. James North Western by a 4,272-vote
majority and losing to Claude Clarke (PNP), in 1989 in St.
Andrew West Rural by 96, was selected by the JLP to contest
the St. Catherine West Central constituency in 1997. Dr. Baugh's
opponent, Alethia Barker (PNP), a young and dynamic politician,
by polling 6,724 votes to 6,198 for Dr. Baugh, made sure that
the efforts of the gentleman from the west to once again enter
Gordon House was frustrated.
The
political landscape in 2002 has changed dramatically when
compared to 1997. There is a significant swing to the JLP
in this constituency. Consequently, the up-coming contest
will be nowhere as close as in 1997. All available data point
to a JLP victory. Indeed St. Catherine West Central once again
safely in the hands of the JLP.
GENERAL
ELECTION (PARLIAMENTARY) PROJECTION 2002
| 2002
|
|
| E/L |
20,724 |
| A/B |
12,416
(59.9%) |
| PNP |
5,529
(44.5%) |
| JLP |
6,887
(55.5%) |
| Majority
(JLP) |
1,358 |
GENERAL
ELECTIONS (SUMMARY) 1976 - 1997
| 1976
|
|
|
E/L
|
12,183 |
| B/C |
9,652 |
| A/B |
9,558 |
| R/B |
94 |
| Enid
Bennett, JLP |
6,518 |
| Melvin
Woodfine, PNP |
3,040 |
| 1980 |
|
| E/L |
13,267 |
| B/C |
10,549 |
| A/B |
10,469 |
| R/B |
80 |
| Enid
Bennett, JLP |
8,771 |
| Melvin
Woodfine, PNP |
1,698 |
|
1983
|
|
| E/L |
13,267 |
| Enid
Bennett, JLP (elected unopposed by acclamation) |
|
| 1989 |
|
| E/L |
16,927 |
| B/C
|
11,663 |
| A/B |
11,590 |
| R/B |
73 |
| Enid
Bennett, JLP |
6,340 |
| Enoch
L. Blake, PNP |
5,250 |
| 1993
|
|
| E/L |
15,734 |
| B/C |
7,815 |
| A/B |
7,740 |
| R/B |
75 |
| Enid
Bennett, JLP |
3,070 |
| Trevor
Dewdney, PNP |
2,985 |
| Marlene
Elliot, IND |
1,685 |
| 1997 |
|
| E/L |
19,519 |
| B/C |
11,514
(59.0%) |
| A/B |
11,421
(99.2%) |
| R/B |
93
( 0.8%) |
| Alethia
Barker, PNP |
5,724
(50.1%) |
| Kenneth
Baugh, JLP |
5,198
(45.5%) |
| Marcela
Williams, NDM |
499
( 4.4%) |
| NOTE: |
|
| E/L: |
Electors
on List |
| B/C: |
Ballots
Cast |
| A/B: |
Accepted
Ballots |
| R/B: |
Rejected
Ballots |
Anthony
Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done
work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's
National Party.
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