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CONSTITUENCY
PROFILE: ST.
CATHERINE NORTH EASTERN
A
close call for the JLP
Anthony
Myers
Contributor
IT
WILL be a close contest in St. Catherine North Eastern but
the pendulum points to a victory for the JLP.
St.
Catherine North Eastern was among the 32 constituencies fixed
in the new Constitution granted to Jamaica in 1944.
Of
the 10 contested parliamentary general elections 1944-1997,
the JLP won six times to the PNP's four. The PNP victories
in 1949, 1955, 1993 and 1997 were not impressive when compared
to the JLP's in 1944, 1959, 1962, 1976, 1980 and 1989.
In
1949, Donald B.H. Nation polled 5,507 votes (44.6% of A/B)
defeating his JLP opponent I.S. Bennett by 2,357. The other
three Independents - Samuel A. Black, Melbourne B. Cox and
Isiah Crossley - polled 1,662, 1,016 and 1,004 respectively.
In
1955, Melbourne B. Cox ran on the PNP ticket and defeated
J.P Gyles (FP), Hector Sage (JLP) along with Independent Isiah
Crossley.
Melbourne
Cox's majority over his nearest rival J.P. Gyles was 2,988.
Like Donald Nation, Melbourne Cox who polled 7,018 votes (48.5%
of A/B) did not get an absolute majority. Phyllis Mitchell's
victory over Anthony Johnson in 1993 was extremely marginal
- 160.
St.
Catherine North Eastern is a traditional JLP stronghold; the
PNP's victory in 1997 was a remarkable achievement. So close
was the result (PNP - 4,750 - JLP 4,713 - majority of 37)
that the losing candidate in an election petition had the
results overturned in the courts, four years later. The judgment
which was handed down in the latter half of 2001 gave the
JLP candidate victory by 23 votes.
Having
lost North East St. Catherine in the courts Phyllis Mitchell
will be coming to regain control in the upcoming general election.
In
what now appears to be a marginal JLP constituency, it won't
be easy to defeat the incumbent, Abe Dabdoub.
In
yet another close contest, the power pendulum points to a
JLP victory.
General
Election (Parliamentary) Projection
2002
|
2002
|
|
| E/L |
15,130 |
| A/B |
10,311
(68.2%) |
| PNP |
4,884
(47.4%) |
| JLP |
5,427
(52.6%) |
| Majority
(JLP) |
543 |
General
Elections (Summary)1944
- 1997
|
1944
|
|
| E/L |
23,268 |
| B/C |
8,744 |
| A/B |
7,958 |
| R/B |
816 |
| Samuel
A. Black,JLP |
4,559
|
| Linden
C.Leslie, PNP |
3,399 |
|
1949
|
|
| E/L |
25,213 |
| B/C |
12,624 |
| A/B |
12,339 |
| R/B |
285 |
| I.S.
Bennett, JLP |
3,150 |
| Samuel
A.Black, IND |
1,662 |
| Melbourne
B.Cox,IND. |
1,016 |
| Isiah
Crossley,IND. |
1,004 |
| Donald
B.H.Nation,PNP |
5,507 |
|
1955
|
|
| E/L |
25,597 |
| B/C |
14,753 |
| A/B |
14,462 |
| R/B |
291 |
| Melbourne
B.Cox, PNP |
7,018 |
| Isiah
Crossley, IND |
733 |
| J.P.
Gyles, FP |
4,030 |
| Hector
Sage, JLP |
2,681 |
|
1959
|
|
| E/L |
20,905 |
| B/C |
14,125 |
| A/B |
13,995 |
| R/B |
130 |
| Melbourne
B.Cox, PNP |
6,702 |
| J.P.
Gyles, JLP |
7,293
|
|
1962
|
|
| E/L |
19,717
|
| B/C |
14,287 |
| A/B |
14,190 |
| R/B |
97 |
| Melbourne
B.Cox, PNP |
6,429 |
| J.P.
Gyles, JLP |
7,761 |
|
1976
|
|
| E/L |
12,394 |
| B/C |
10,348 |
| A/B |
10,282 |
| R/B |
66 |
| Lloyd
Hay, PNP |
3,930 |
| E.K.
Powell, JLP |
6,352 |
|
1980
|
|
| E/L |
12,403 |
| B/C |
10,190 |
| A/B |
10,138 |
| R/B |
52 |
| Dorret
E. Aarons, PNP |
2,193 |
| E.K.
Powell, JLP |
7,945 |
|
1989
|
|
| E/L |
14,521 |
| B/C |
10,491 |
| A/B |
10,344 |
| R/B |
147 |
| Anthony
S.Johnson, JLP |
5,740 |
| Phyllis
Mitchell, PNP |
4,604 |
|
1993
|
|
| E/L |
13,188 |
| B/C |
7,841 |
| A/B |
7,806 |
| R/B |
35 |
| Anthony
S.Johnson, JLP |
3,823 |
| Phyllis
Mitchell, PNP |
3,983 |
|
1997
|
|
| E/L |
13,134 |
| B/C |
9,672
(68.4%) |
| A/B |
9,580
(99.0%) |
| R/B |
92
(1.0%) |
| Phyllis
Mae Mitchell, PNP |
4,750
(49.6%) |
| Abraham
J.Dabdoub, JLP |
4,713
(49.2%) |
| Bancroft
St.E.Anglin, NDM |
117
(1.2%) |
|
NOTE:
|
|
| E/L: |
Electors
on List |
| B/C: |
Ballots
Cast |
| A/B: |
Accepted
Ballots |
| R/B: |
Rejected
Ballots |
*
Anthony Myers is a statistician and political analyst who
has done work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for
the People's National Party.
|
