CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: MANCHESTER SOUTHERN

TA win for the PNP in a close contest
Anthony Myers
Contributor

It will be a very close contest, but indications are that the PNP's candidate will win the Manchester Southern seat in the upcoming general election.

Thirty-two constituencies were fixed in the new Consti-tution granted to Jamaica in 1944. Manchester Southern was among the 32 as the parish was divided into Manchester Northern and Southern.

During the period 1944-1997 there has been 10 contested Parliamentary General Elections, with the PNP winning seven times to the JLP's three in this constituency. The PNP's near miss in 1980 when Arthur H.W. Williams (JLP), defeated A. S. Sinclair (PNP), by a mere 465 votes is a clear indication as to the strength of the PNP in Manchester Southern. Apart from 1944 when in a very close contest Lawton C. Bloomfield (JLP), was defeated by Wendel W. Benjamin (PNP) who polled 4,274 votes to L.C. Bloomfield's 4,253 a mere 21 majority, the PNP has received solid and consistent support from the voters of Manchester Southern.

In 1972 Douglas Manley defeated Arthur H. W. Williams by 94 votes only to have the victory overturned in the courts, some two years later. Both Douglas Manley and Arthur Williams squared off again in 1976 and this time the elder son of Norman Manley was decisive in victory as he polled 7,951 votes to Arthur Williams's 5,322, a majority of 2,629. Arthur Williams bounced back in 1980 to regain control of the seat for the JLP.

In 1989 Douglas Manley, like a good heavyweight reclaiming his title, defeated Lloyd Bent (JLP) by 3,011 votes. With the retirement of Douglas Manley in 1992, the mantle fell on Michael Peart, the elder son of the late political veteran Ernest Peart, to represent the PNP in the March 30, 1993 General election. In polling 6,057 votes to Lloyd Bent's (JLP) 4,702 Michael Peart with majority of 1,355, joined his younger brother Dean Peart in the lower house of Parliament.

Michael Peart in winning the 1997 General Election created history, along with his brother Dean Peart (Manchester North Western), becoming the only two brothers to represent different constituencies in the same parish at the same time for two consecutive terms. Can this record be maintained in the 2002 General Election? Since 1997 the political landscape has changed dramatically, South Manchester is now a marginal PNP seat. The PNP lead has been considerably reduced over the last two years, consequently a very close contest is projected. Both PNP and JLP are on a high as to the outcome of Southern Manchester. There can be only one winner. The power pendulum ever so slightly swings in the direction of the incumbent Michael Peart.

GENERAL ELECTIONS (SUMMARY) 1944 - 1997

1944
E/L	23,577
B/C	12,425
A/B	10,107
R/B	2,318
Lawton C. Bloomfield, JLP	4,253
Tewfie S. Josephs, IND	1,488
Clarence G. Webb-Harris, IND	92
Wendel W. Benjamin, PNP	4,274

1949
E/L	24,944
B/C	16,913
A/B	16,490
R/B	423
Wendel W. Benjamin, PNP	7,737
Lawton C. Bloomfield,JLP	8,646
Easton Powell, IND IND	105

1955
E/L	27,080
B/C	18,512
A/B	18,038
R/B	474
Winston V. Jones, PNP	11,562
Lawton C. Bloomfield,JLP	6,134
John Allen, IND	143
E.A. Blackburn, IND	199

1967
E/L	9,328
B/C	7,530
A/B	7,469
R/B	61
Cecil C. Charton, PNP	3,094
Arthur H.W. Williams, JLP	4,375
John Allen, IND	143
E.A. Blackburn, IND	199

1972
E/L	10,395
B/C	8,202
A/B	7,776
R/B	426
Douglas Manley, PNP	3,935
Arthur H.W. Williams, JLP	3,841

1976
E/L	15,801
B/C	13,384
A/B	13,273
R/B	111
Douglas Manley, PNP	7,951
Arthur H.W. Williams, JLP	5,322

1980
E/L	16,880
B/C	14,329
A/B	14,239
R/B	90
A.S. Sinclair, PNP	6,887
Arthur H.W. Williams, JLP	7,352

1983
E/L	16,880
Lloyd G. Bent, JLP (elected unopposed by acclamation)

1989
E/L	18,374
B/C	14,276
A/B	14,219
R/B	426
Douglas Manley, PNP	8,615
Lloyd G. Bent, JLP	5,604

1993
E/L	16,398
B/C	10,776
A/B	10,759
R/B	17
Michael Peart, PNP	6,057
Lloyd G. Bent, JLP	4,702

1997
E/L	19,893
B/C	13,349 (67.1%)
A/B	13,295 (99.6%)
R/B	51 (0.4%)
Michael Peart, PNP	8,030 (60.4%)
Arthur H.W. Williams, JLP	4,966 (37.4%)
Edward Muschamp, NDM	299 (2.2%)

GENERAL ELECTION (PARLIAMENTARY) PROJECTION 2002

E/L	20,784
A/B	13,665	(65.8%)
PNP	7,730	(56.6%)
JLP	5,935	(43.4%)
Majority (PNP)
	1,795

SOLUTIONS:

25. At page six of the Government's White Paper on Education, section 1.3 the following statement is made: "Government commits to protect the annual allocation to education which should be at least 15-20% of the recurrent national Budget". On page 30, the paper states: "the budgetary allocation to education has fluctuated between 10.6 and 14.5 per cent of Government's budget with debt servicing and 20.2 to 29.5 per cent without debt servicing."

26. The total allocation for education in the 2000/2001 Budget was $19 billion and hopefully this can be increased to $29 billion in the next budget, apportioned as follows or some combination thereof to reflect the new priorities I am recommending: See table .

27. All governments adjust their national budgets to reflect their policy priorities. The question is not how much it will cost to reform the present educational system but rather what will be the overall cost to the nation and our people if we don't.

LEVEL	PREVIOUS		PREVIOUS	PROPOSED			PROPOSED
		%	AMOUNT			%	AMOUNT
Early Childhood	4.5		.85 billion	11			3.1 billion
Primary	36.9		7.10 billion	37			10.7 billion
Secondary	32.9		6.10 billion	33			9.5 billion
Tertiary	18.3		3.40 billion	14			4.0 billion
Other	7.4		1.40 billion	5			1.5 billion
TOTAL	100%		18.80 billion		100%		28.8 billion