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CONSTITUENCY
PROFILE: PORTLAND
WESTERN
PNP has slight edge
By
Anthony Myers
Contributor
THE
CONSTITUENCY of Portland Western is bounded by the following:
From
a point where the Guava River crosses the Portland/St. Thomas
parish boundary, thence westerly along the Portland/St. Thomas
parish boundary to the St. Andrew/Portland parish boundary.
It then continues along the St. Andrew/Portland parish boundary
to the St. Mary/Portland parish boundary, northerly along
the St. Mary/Portland parish boundary to the seacoast. Then
it goes easterly along the Rio Grande to where it meets the
Guava River, along the Guava River back to the starting point
at the Portland/St. Thomas parish boundary.
Portland
Western was among the 32 constituencies fixed in the Constitution
granted to Jamaica in 1944. The JLP has an enviable record
of support in West Portland, winning eight times - 1944, 1949,
1955, 1959, 1962, 1967 and 1980 - to the PNP's four - 1976,
1989, 1993 and 1997.
In
1976 when Leslie Birch (PNP) defeated Dan Green (JLP) by 569
votes, the JLP was losing West Portland for the first time
since 1944 as Leopold Augustus Lynch won the seat seven consecutive
times - 1944 to 1972. This feat has been surpassed only by
Edward Seaga (JLP), who has so far had eight consecutive victories
in Kingston Western - 1962, 1967, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1989,
1993 and 1997, all contested elections.
The
dominance of the JLP in Portland Western was broken in 1989
when Errol Ennis (PNP), by polling 6,848 votes, defeated St.
Clair Shirley (JLP), who polled 5,977 votes. In 1993, Errol
Ennis retained the Portland Western seat for the PNP with
an increased majority, as he polled 5,830 votes to the JLP's
Holden Hammond's 4,434 - a majority of 1,396.
The
current voters' list for Portland Western is 16,574 or 4.9
per cent over the 1997 voters' list. The projected total for
the upcoming general election if held after May 31 this year
is likely to be approximately 17,000. It seems, therefore,
that with no significant increase in the voters' list, this
marginal constituency could prove a hard nut to crack as the
JLP seeks to take control of a seat it so dominated during
the period 1944
to 1980.
While
a PNP victory is in no way cast in concrete, the JLP should
be fully aware that a Portland Western victory is a must in
order to break the 13 years of political drought. In what
promises to be a nail-biting finish, the PNP has a slight
edge, but only just.
2002
General Election - Projection 2002
|
2002
|
|
| E/L |
17,000 |
| A/B |
10,981
(64.6%) |
|
PNP
|
6,008
(54.7%) |
| JLP |
4,973
(45.3%) |
|
MAJ.
(PNP)
|
1,035 |
General
Elections (Summary) 1944-1997
|
1944
|
|
| E/L
|
14,550 |
|
B/C
|
9,136 |
| A/B |
7,224 |
| R/B |
1,912
|
|
K.V.
Abenana, IND.
|
1,727 |
| Frederick
William Bragg, IND. |
295 |
| R.L.
Lowe, PNP |
1,007 |
| Leopold
Augustus Lynch, JLP |
2,795 |
| C.L.A.
Shirley, IND |
251 |
|
Norman
V. Thompson, IND.
|
737 |
|
Walter
James Thompson, IND.
|
412 |
|
1949
|
|
| E/L |
15,333 |
|
B/C
|
9,973 |
| A/B |
9,716 |
|
R/B
|
257 |
| R.L.
Lowe, PNP |
4,340 |
| Leopold
Augustus Lynch, JLP |
5,376
|
|
1955
|
|
| E/L |
14,870 |
| B/C |
11,022 |
| A/B |
10,906 |
|
R/B
|
116 |
| E.
Fagan, PNP |
5,302 |
| Leopold
Augustus Lynch, JLP |
5,604 |
|
1959
|
|
| E/L |
14,033 |
|
B/C
|
10,748 |
|
A/B
|
10,655 |
| R/B |
93 |
|
Oswald
Bradshaw, PNP
|
5,293 |
|
Leopold
Augustus Lynch, JLP
|
5,362 |
|
1962
|
|
| E/L |
12,805 |
|
B/C
|
10,363 |
| A/B |
10,291 |
| R/B |
72 |
|
Oswald
Bradshaw, PNP
|
4,793 |
| Leopold
Augustus Lynch, JLP |
5,447 |
|
Franklin
Walker, PPP
|
51 |
|
1967
|
|
| E/L
|
10,651 |
|
B/C
|
9,514 |
| A/B |
9,457 |
|
R/B
|
57 |
| Leopold
Augustus Lynch, JLP |
5,406 |
|
William
C. Smatt, PNP
|
4,051 |
|
1972
|
|
| E/L |
11,348 |
| B/C |
9,280 |
|
A/B
|
9,225 |
| R/B |
55 |
| Leopold
Augustus Lynch, JLP |
4,947 |
| Clement
T. Afflick, PNP |
4,249
|
| Michael
Dibbs, IND. |
29
|
|
1976
|
|
| E/L
|
13,857 |
|
B/C
|
12,104 |
| A/B |
12,015 |
| R/B |
89
|
|
Leslie
Birch, PNP
|
6,292 |
| Dan
Green, JLP |
5,723 |
|
1980
|
|
| E/L |
13,686 |
|
B/C
|
12,117 |
| A/B |
12,082 |
|
R/B
|
35 |
| Evadne
Shirley, PNP |
5,112 |
|
St.
Clair Shirley, JLP
|
6,970 |
| Stan
Grant, IND |
17 |
|
1983
|
|
| E/L |
13,686 |
|
B/C
|
|
|
A/B
|
|
|
R/B
|
|
|
St.
Clair Orland Shirley, JLP
|
-
Elected unopposed by acclamation. |
|
1989
|
|
| E/L |
15,782 |
|
B/C
|
12,879 |
| A/B |
12,825 |
| R/B |
54 |
|
Errol
F. Ennis, PNP
|
6,848 |
| JLP |
5,977 |
|
1993
|
|
| E/L |
14,768 |
|
B/C
|
10,318 |
| A/B |
10,264 |
|
R/B
|
54 |
| Errol
Ennis, PNP |
5,830 |
|
Holden
Hammond, JLP
|
4,434 |
|
1997
|
|
| E/L |
15,796 |
|
B/C
|
10,439
(66.10%) |
| A/B |
10,411
(99.73%) |
|
R/B
|
28
(0.27%) |
| PNP |
6,282
(60.30%) |
|
JLP
|
4,129
(39.70%) |
|
NOTE:
|
|
| E/L: |
Electors
on List |
|
B/C:
|
Ballots
cast |
| A/B: |
Accepted
ballots |
|
R/B:
|
Rejected
ballots |
Anthony
Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done work
for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's National
Party. |
