CONSTITUENCY PROFILES: HANOVER EASTERN

Fourth victory for the PNP
By Anthony Myers

This constituency is regarded as a marginal swing seat but the PNP seems
set to complete four consecutive victories.

Thirty-two constituencies were fixed in the new constitution granted to
Jamaica in 1944. Hanover Eastern was among the 32 as the parish was divided
into Eastern and Western.

The constituency of Hanover Eastern is bounded by the following:

From a point where the Lucea East River (Kew River) enters the sea,
easterly along the seacoast to the western boundary of Blue Hole,
continuing easterly along the seacoast to the Hanover-St. James parish
boundary (Great River).

It then goes south-easterly along the Great River to the junction of St.
James-Hanover and Westmoreland parish boundary, then westerly along the
Hanover-Westmoreland parish boundary to a point where the parish boundary
crosses the main road from Shettlewood to McField. From there it goes north
westerly and westerly along the parish boundary through Mahogany Hill to
where it meets the main road leading to Askenish, then along the Askenish
main road to where it meets the main road from Maryland to Cash Hill, then
northerly along the eastern side of this main road to the Dundee Bridge
over the Lucea East River (Kew River), along this river to the starting
point.

Of the 12 contested Parliamentary General Elections 1944-1997 Hanover
Eastern featured in all. The PNP contested 11 of the 12 elections while the
JLP contested all 12. The 1944 election was won by the independent
candidate Joseph Zechariah Malcolm who defeated the JLP candidate Greville
Ribton Levy by 395 votes. There were three other independents who polled
148, 671 and 1,478 votes.

In 1949 the incumbent Joseph Malcolm contested the election on the JLP
ticket and defeated the PNP candidate Winsbert M. Grubb by a 2,142
majority. Hanover Eastern is a typical weather-vane constituency. In
winning the 1955 general election the PNP also won the Hanover Eastern seat
in an extremely close contest in which all four candidates: Eric Campbell
(PNP), Winsbert Grubb (NLP), W.D. Hastings (FP) and Arnold S. Jackson
(JLP), received 2,314, 1,958, 1901 and 1,462 votes respectively.

Since 1962 the general election results for Hanover Eastern have followed
the two-term syndrome; the JLP won the 1962 general election and retained
the Hanover Eastern seat. In 1967 Arnold Jackson (JLP) completed three
consecutive terms in winning the seat by a majority of 1,200, votes. It was
the PNP's turn in 1972 as Dr. Aston King defeated the veteran Arnold
Jackson by 911 votes. The PNP also returned to office with a 19-seat
majority over the JLP. After two terms in opposition, the JLP was returned
to power in 1980 with an unprecedented 85% of the seats and 58.9% of
accepted ballots.

Basil Buck wreaked vengeance on Aston King who had defeated him in the 1976
general election by a mere 150 votes. Buck's margin of victory was a
convincing 2,994. After nearly nine years in the political wilderness, the
PNP was returned to power in 1989 winning 45 of the

60 seats. It therefore came as no surprise when Hanover Eastern was
declared among the seats won by the PNP, as this was in keeping with the
trend since 1962.

In 1997 the PNP defied the voting pattern which had indicated a JLP victory
based on trends over the last 35 years (1962-1997). The PNP not only won
the general election but inflicted yet another defeat on the JLP in Hanover
Eastern. Canute Brown (PNP), by polling 5,622 votes sent the JLP candidate
Basil Buck, who polled 4,230 votes, into retirement from the political
arena.

With the JLP and the PNP putting up new candidates and the voters' list
(previous to May 31) showing a 12% increase over the 1997 list, neither the
JLP nor the PNP can confidently predict victory. With this constituency
still a marginal swing seat, the PNP seems set to complete four consecutive
victories.

General Election (Parliamentary - Projection 2002

General Elections (Summary) 1944-1997