PNP has slight advantage
Anthony Myers
Contributor

THE PNP has a slight advantage in St. Andrew East Rural in the upcoming general election, but only just.

The candidates are Oliver Clue, PNP, the incumbent MP, and Joseph Hibbert for the JLP.

In 1959, as a result of an advancement in the Constitution, 45 constituencies were provided for Jamaica, 13 over the 32 which had been fixed from 1944. St. Andrew East Rural which evolved from the old Eastern St. Andrew was among the 13 newly-created constituencies.

The constituency of St. Andrew East Rural is bounded by Harbour Head where the Kingston-St. Andrew parish boundary meets the sea, northerly along the eastern side of this boundary to the Hope River, northerly along the eastern side of the Hope River to Kintyre Road. It then goes northerly along the eastern side of Kintyre Road to Gordon Town Road, westerly along the northern side of Gordon Town Road to the northern boundary of Papine Training Institute (so as to exclude this institution), then along this boundary to a track leading across the foothills, westerly along the northern side of this track to a point on the Mountain Spring Road approximately three chains above the junction of Phadrian Avenue and Widcombe Road. It then goes north westerly across the hills to the six-mile post on Jacks Hill Road (excluding all of Mountain Spring), westerly along Jacks Hill Road to Sunset Avenue, along Sunset Avenue to a point approximately three chains above Upper Carmel Avenue.

From this point it goes in an imaginary line to Cambridge parochial road at the northern boundary of the marl quarry, then northerly along the eastern side of the Cambridge parochial road to Dolly Mahoney's Gap at a point where the parochial road meets a bridle track leading to the Main Spring. From there it goes northerly along the eastern side of the Main Spring to the Hermitage Dam, then along the eastern side of the Hermitage Dam to the point where it meets Moresham River, northerly along the eastern side of this river to where it meets a bridle track leading to Muff Castle. It travels along this track to a point where the Muff Castle Road meets the Juniper Hill Road, easterly along the Juniper Hill Road to the Juniper Gap Road, along the eastern side of the Juniper Gap Road to the St. Andrew-Portland parish boundary. From there it goes along this parish boundary to its junction with the St. Andrew-St. Thomas parish boundary, southerly along this parish boundary to the seacoast, westerly along the seacoast to the Kingston-St. Andrew parish boundary at the gypsum stockpile, along this boundary to the seacoast and along the seacoast to the starting point.

Of the nine contested parliamentary general elections 1959-1997, the PNP won seven times to the JLP's two. In 1959, Keble Munn (PNP), defeated Wilton Hill (JLP), by 1,519 votes. He retained the seat for the PNP in 1962 when he polled 10,967 votes to 6,881 for the JLP's Lynford A. McGann.

The 1967 boundaries adjustments saw the creation of St. Andrew South Eastern. Keble Munn shifted to the new South Eastern constituency while newcomers E.G.G. Barrett (PNP), and David Lindo (JLP), squared off in the much reduced in size St. Andrew East Rural. In a close contest David Lindo defeated E.G.G. Barrett, but failed in his bid for a second term, in the 1972 election. In an extremely close election, Eric Bell pipped the incumbent David Lindo by 272 votes.

In 1976, Roy McGann (PNP), had a comfortable victory over Oswald Harding (JLP). The PNP polled 8,710 votes to the JLP's 4,929 ­ a majority of 2,781. In the 1980 general election, Joan Gordon (JLP), defeated Lloyd Stultz (PNP), by a massive 4,611 majority. In the 1989 general election, E.G.G. Barrett wrestled the seat from the incumbent Joan Gordon-Webley giving the PNP yet another hold on the St. Andrew East Rural constituency. In 1993, with Joan Gordon-Webley having fallen out of grace with the JLP leadership, trade unionist Rudyard Spencer was selected to represent the JLP in St. Andrew East Rural.

There was a three-way contest in which Horace Clue (PNP), polled 6,148 votes to 3,267 for Rudyard Spencer of the JLP, and 719 for Joan Gordon-Webley, Independent.

In 1997, Horace Clue secured his second term by polling 6,769 votes to defeat Oswald Harding (JLP), who had previously lost to Roy McGann in 1976 (East Rural St. Andrew) and to John Junor in 1993 (Manchester Central) by 1,950 majority, the PNP polling 6,769 votes, the JLP 4,819 - NDM 1,026.

With a significant increase in the current voters' list over the 1997 list, can the incumbent Horace Clue secure a third consecutive term? St. Andrew East Rural is another "battle ground" seat which will go a far way in deciding which of the two major parties form the next government. The PNP has a slight advantage, but only just.

GENERAL ELECTIONS (SUMMARY) 1959 - 1997

1959
E/L	18,500
B/C	12,766
A/B	12,613
R/B	153
Wilton O. Hill, JLP	5,547
Keble A. Munn, PNP	7,066

1962
E/L	26,003
B/C	18,211
A/B	18,099
R/B	112
George J. Edwards, PPP	251
Lynford A. McGann, JLP	6,881
Keble A. Munn, PNP	10,967

1967
E/L	8,068
B/C	6,639
A/B	6,603
R/B	36
E.G.G. Barrett, PNP	2,920
David Lindo, JLP	3,633
Linval Rookwood, JLP	50

1972
E/L	10,025
B/C	8,102
A/B	8,082
R/B	20
Eric Bell, PNP	4,177
David Lindo, JLP	3,905

1976
E/L	17,319
B/C	14,723
A/B	14,639
R/B	84
Oswald Harding, JLP	5,929
Roy McGann, PNP	8,710

1980
E/L	20,010
B/C	17,073
A/B	16,857
R/B	216
Joan Gordon, JLP	10,734
Lloyd Stultz, PNP	6,123

1983
E/L	20,010

1989
E/L	18,755
B/C	13,811
A/B	13,756
R/B	55
E.G.G. Barrett, PNP	7,070
Joan A. Gordon-Webley, JLP	6,686

1993
E/L	16,635
B/C	10,216
A/B	10,134
R/B	82
Horace D. Clue, PNP	6,148
Joan A.Gordon-Webley, IND	719
Rudyard Spencer, JLP	3,267

1997
E/L	22,085
B/C	12,732 (57.6%)
A/B	12,614 (99.1%)
R/B	118 ( 0.9%)
Horace Clue, PNP	6,769 (53.7%)
Oswald Harding, JLP	4,819 (38.2%)
Andre Foote, NDM	1,026 ( 8.1%)

NOTE:	E/L: Electors on List
B/C:	Ballots Cast
A/B:	Accepted Ballots
R/B:	Rejected Ballots