PNP will retain this seat

In a very close contest in Clarendon Northern, the PNP will retain the seat in spite of the significant swing to the JLP in the parish.

Clarendon Northern was created in 1967 when the number of constituencies was increased by eight from 45 to 53.

During the period 1967-1997 there have been seven contested general elections. The PNP won four - 1972, 1989, 1993 and 1997, and the JLP won three - 1967, 1976 and 1980.

The victory of J.A.G. Smith Jr., (JLP), over Robert Saunds (PNP), by a mere 13 in 1976 clearly indicates the voting pattern over the last 30 years. Horace Dalley's victory in 1997 had the largest majority, 2,228; 597 more than his 1,631 margin of victory over Edwin B. Singh (JLP). There is no doubt that the incumbent is faced with his strongest challenge since his victory over J.A.G. Smith Jr. in 1989. Laurie Broderick, the new kid on the block, is the brother of Percy Broderick, a household name in Clarendon North Central.

Twenty-six years ago (1976) Northern Clarendon was regarded as one of the sure seats for the PNP. In a shock result, the JLP's candidate J.A.G. Smith Jr., polled 5,305 votes to defeat by a baker's dozen - 13 ­ Robert Saunds (PNP), who polled 5,292 votes.

Michael Manley, the then president of the People's National Party, could not believe his ears, as a PNP victory in Clarendon Northern was high on the list of 48 seats projected for the PNP. The PNP won the general election 47 to 13 for the JLP.

History is therefore not on the side of the PNP. However, with a slight increase in registration for the upcoming general election over the 1997 list, the JLP will have to capture a significant amount of the PNP's 1997 support to win Clarendon Northern. The JLP is also faced with a constituency in which the voters' list is made up of 52.8 per cent male as against 47.2 per cent female. It is also a fact that the vote of the youth (18 to 29 years old) is approximately 38 per cent of the current voters' list. Recent polls have the JLP support drawn from mostly female and youth votes. It seems therefore, that in a very close contest, the PNP will retain Clarendon Northern in spite of the significant swing to the JLP in the parish.

GENERAL ELECTIONS (SUMMARY) 1967 - 1997

1967

E/L 9,453

B/C 7,765

A/B 7,677

R/B 88

George Atkinson, JLP 3,981

Rupert H. Binger, IND 404

Robert M. Saunds, PNP 3,247

Vincent G.Smith, REP 45

1972

E/L 10,488

B/C 8,333

A/B 8,287

R/B 46

H.G. Atkinson, JLP 3,877

Robert M. SaUnds, PNP 4,410

1976

E/L 12,619

B/C 10,656

A/B 10,597

R/B 59

Robert M. Saunds, PNP 5,292

J.A.G. Smith (Jr), JLP 5,305

1980

E/L 13,047

B/C 11,375

A/B 11,260

R/B 115

Kingsley Robotham, PNP 4,885

J.A.G. Smith Jr, JLP 6,375

1983

E/L 13,047

J.A.G. Smith, JLP (elected unopposed by acclamation)

1989

E/L 16,341

B/C 13,221

A/B 13,150

R/B 71

Horace W. Dalley, PNP 7,015

J.A.G. Smith, JLP 6,135

1993

E/L 14,852

B/C 10,589

A/B 10,522

R/B 67

Horace W. Dalley, PNP 6,060

Edwin B. Singh, JLP 4,429

1997

E/L 15,994

B/C 11,746 (73.4%)

A/B 11,689 (99.5%)

R/B 57 (0.5%)

Horace W. Dalley,
PNP 6,847 (58.6%)

Rupert Wilmot Francis,
JLP 4,619 (39.5%)

Alstair B.C. McDonald,
NDM 223 ( 1.9%)

NOTE:

E/L: Electors on List

B/C: Ballots Cast

A/B: Accepted Ballots

R/B: Rejected Ballots