CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: ST. ANDREW SOUTHERN

PNP by a wide margin
Anthony Myers
Contributor

THE INCUMBENT MP, Dr. Omar Davies, is confidently expected to retain St. Andrew Southern by a wide margin in the up-coming general election.

His opponent is Dennis Messias of the JLP.

By the Constituencies (Boundaries) Order 1966, under Section 67 of the Constitution of Jamaica, the number of constituencies in the parish of St. Andrew was increased from six to eight. St. Andrew Southern was among the newly-created constituencies in 1967.

The constituency of St. Andrew Southern is bounded from a point where Rousseau Road meets Maxfield Avenue, easterly along the southern side of Retirement Road to Half-Way Tree Road, south easterly along the western side of Half-Way Tree Road to Slipe Road. It then goes southerly along the western side of Slipe Road to where it meets the Kingston & St. Andrew parish boundary at Torrington Bridge, then westerly and south westerly along the western and northern sides of the parish boundary to Spanish Town Road. From there it goes north westerly along the northern side of the parish boundary on the northern side of Spanish Town Road to Maxfield Avenue, north easterly along the eastern side of Maxfield Avenue to Rousseau Road at the starting point.

Of the seven contested parliamentary general elections 1967-1997, the PNP won six times to the JLP's one. In 1967, Eugene C.L. Parkinson (JLP), put an end to the PNP's Vernon Arnett's political career when he polled 4,160 to Vernon Arnett's 3,522, a majority of 648. In 1972, Anthony Spaulding ended E.C.L. Parkinson's political career in an extremely close contest -- PNP 3,658 -- JLP 3,556 - a majority 102.

In 1976, Anthony Spaulding in a decisive victory, polled 13,927 votes to the JLP's Carol Ramsay's 3,131, a majority of 10,796 votes. Bustamante's 27- year-old record (10,570 majority) over the PNP candidate S.G. Beresford, was laid to rest. The "Trench Town Rock" as he was affectionately called, defeated Egbert Beadle (JLP), in 1980 by a massive 15,030 majority. The fact that in 1980, the JLP won 51 of the 60 seats to take control of the Lower House, this was indeed a remarkable feat by Anthony Spaulding.

In 1989 and 1993, his successor, Hartley E. Jones was no less devastating as he trounced Earlston L. Spencer (JLP), and Desmond A. McKenzie (JLP) by 9,706 and 11,882 majorities, respectively. Dr. Omar Davies who won the seat in a by-election, December 1993, after the resignation of Hartley Jones in November 1993, was no less devastating in the 1997 general election as he polled 14,084 votes to defeat his JLP and NDM opponents by 12,878 and 14,029 majorities respectively.

With no significant increase in the current voters list over the 1997 list the incumbent Omar Davies is confidently expected to retain St. Andrew southern by a wide margin in the up-coming general election. An exemplary parliamentarian who serves his constituency with distinction.

GENERAL ELECTION (PARLIAMENTARY)- PROJECTION 2002

2002
E/L	17,541
A/B	15,611 (89.0%)
PNP	14,830 (95.0%)
JLP	781 (5.0%)
Majority (PNP)	14,049

GENERAL ELECTIONS (SUMMARY) 1967 - 1997

1967
E/L	9,631
B/C	7,760
A/B	7,692
R/B	68
Vernon Arnett, PNP	3,522
Eugene C.L. Parkinson, JLP	4,170

1972
E/L	9,763
B/C	7,248
A/B	7,214
R/B	34
Eugene C.L. Parkinson, JLP	3,556
Anthony M. Spaulding, PNP	3,658

1976
E/L	17,267
B/C	17,225
A/B	17,058
R/B	167
Carol Ramsay, JLP	3,131
Anthony M. Spaulding, PNP	13,927

1980
E/L	20,450
B/C	20,761
A/B	20,448
R/B	313
Anthony M. Spaulding, PNP	17,739
Egbert Beadle, JLP	2,709

1983
E/L	20,450
Earlston L. Spencer, JLP	(elected unopposed by acclamation)

1989
E/L	19,911
B/C	20,124
A/B	19,890
R/B	234
Hartley E. Jones, PNP	14,798
Earlston L. Spencer, JLP	5,092

1993
E/L	23,887
B/C	23,184
A/B	22,868
R/B	316
Hartley E. Jones, PNP	17,375
Desmond A. McKenzie, JLP	5,493

1997
E/L	16,729
B/C	15,486 (92.6%)
A/B	15,345 (99.1%)
R/B	141 (0.9%)
Omar Lloyd Davies,PNP	14,084 (91.8%)
Dennis A. Messias, JLP	1,206 (7.9%)
John D. Caswell, NDM	55 (0.3%)

NOTE:
E/L:	Electors on List
B/C:	Ballots Cast
A/B:	Accepted Ballots
R/B:	Rejected Ballots

Anthony Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's National Party.