PNP stays ahead ...although both parties gain

PNP - 37.2%, JLP - 33.7%

The governing People's National Party (PNP) continues to enjoy more popular support than its main rival, the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), a Gleaner-commissioned poll has found.

According to the findings of the September poll, conducted by Don Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Ltd., 37.2 per cent of persons surveyed say they would be voting for the PNP in the October 16 general election, compared to 33.7 per cent who disclosed that they would vote for the JLP.

The PNP's lead is outside the poll's 2.9 per cent margin of error.

Both parties have, however, picked up voter support since the last poll in August. The PNP has increased its support by 11.1 per cent while the JLP has stretched its support by 11.3 per cent. The Opposition has, therefore, cut the PNP's lead by 0.2 per cent since the last poll.

"As Election Day approaches, the number of persons appearing to be undecided about voting has decreased. This means that some of those who have been sitting on the fence trying to decide which of the parties to vote for are now making up their minds," Mr. Anderson said in his analysis.

The block of voters who say they will not vote stand at 12 per cent, while those who have not made up their minds constitute 14.1 per cent of those interviewed.

The poll, which was conducted over the period September 23-27 and involved interviewing 2,232 persons islandwide, was done during the week when there was widespread speculation about the return of Bruce Golding to the JLP.

Some fieldwork was also done after the announcement of Mr. Golding's return, more than a week ago.

Mr. Golding, a former chairman of the JLP, returned to the party seven years after he resigned, citing the party's refusal to adopt major political and constitutional reforms. Viewed as the main candidate to succeed JLP Leader, Edward Seaga, Mr. Golding's return is expected to boost the fortunes of the party, which has been criticised for the lack of effective second layer leaders.

But with just 10 days to go before the election, the race is still too close to call, Mr. Anderson said.

He said the outcome could depend on the success of the respective campaigns over the next few days. Despite this, a constituency-by-constituency evaluation suggests that the PNP has the advantage in 33 of the 60 constituencies with the JLP ahead in 19. There are eight, which are still marginal at this point and could go either way, Mr. Anderson said. At the same time, the minor parties continue to have little impact on the electorate. Support for the United People's Party has dropped from 3.6 per cent since the last poll to two per cent, while the National Democratic Movement/New Jamaica Alliance is down to one per cent from two per cent in August.