Jamaica's next Prime Minister will face a mammoth task of naming a new Cabinet and evidence of national consensus will be critical, political analysts and commentators say.

The Senate will see some widening to include more civilians, especially from the monied sector.

"Both (parties) will add private sector people - both are committed to broadening the Senate to include members of civil society. Big capital must be represented in the Senate. I can see them being offered things like independent Senatorship, but the question is will they accept?" political analyst Dr. D. K. Duncan said.

While generally agreeing with Dr. Duncan, commentator and attorney, Dr. Paul Ashley, feels that some 'newly-appointed independent senators' could end up with ministerial responsibilities.

"There are many persons (candidates) walking around with minister-to-be on their chest, but we will see what we shall see. I believe that should the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) win, Mr. Seaga will be relying heavily on the Senate from which to choose ministers, although some of the faithful will have to be rewarded."

Dr. Ashley believes that People's National Party (PNP) leader, P. J. Patterson "will not shock anybody in his new Cabinet."

"There will be changes, but, it will not be earth-shattering. Mr. Patterson is very conservative and will not do anything 'un-Patterson like'. But, it will be interesting to see the part that will be played by the resignees and returnees," he said.

Three Members of Parliament (MP), Errol Ennis, Karl Blythe and Ronald Thwaites, were forced to resign after they became embroiled in controversies last year.

Dr. Ashley believes that Maxine Henry-Wilson and Dr. Paul Robertson will be rewarded for turning the PNP's fortunes around in the polls. He said they will be returned to the Cabinet.

Mrs. Henry-Wilson and Dr. Robertson were dispatched on the ground last year to revive the party's poor showing in the polls, after its loss in the North East St. Ann by-election.

Former Mayor of Montego Bay, Shalman Scott, agreed that Mrs. Henry-Wilson and Dr. Robertson will be rewarded handsomely.

"There is no doubt that they will be rewarded. What they have done is nothing short of a miracle, pulling the PNP back from disaster to being ahead in the polls and perhaps well on to winning the election," he said last week.

But, according to Dr. Duncan, Mrs. Henry-Wilson will not be the only woman who could possibly be asked to head a ministry.

Of the 19 women who are running for Parliament in the two major parties (13 PNP and 6 JLP), "...most are not seat winners," Dr. Duncan said.

"The ones who will win are Portia Simpson Miller, Sharon Hay-Webster, Aloun Assamba, Maxine Henry-Wilson, Babsy Grange and Shahine Robinson," he said.

Those who could be appointed a ministry portfolio (under the respective Government) are Portia Simpson Miller, Aloun Assamba, Maxine Henry-Wilson and Babsy Grange.

Mr. Scott said he does not expect any of the "resignees" to return to the Cabinet and he too expects to see more women heading ministries.

One of those expected to bow out of a PNP Cabinet is Education Minister, Burchell Whiteman, while Arnold Bert-ram is expected to shed the Youth portfolio of his ministry, Dr. Ashley said.

State Minister in the Education Ministry, Fitz Jackson, could be promoted and National Security Minister, Dr. Peter Phillips, will remain.

Point man

Dr. Ashley added that he would not like to be in the shoes of JLP spokesman on finance Audley Shaw, "because, if the JLP wins, Mr. Seaga will be taking that portfolio under his belt".

The configuration, Dr. Duncan imagines, is that the portfolio would be Ministry of Finance and Development and Bruce Golding, a Senator, would become a full minister and Shaw would be the point man for investment and job creation.

"Pearnel Charles would be in the Cabinet. The only way he would be out is if the JLP wins 50 seats. Then there would be no problem if there is a fallout," Dr. Duncan said.

A source from within the JLP told The Sunday Gleaner that, "the worse part of winning the election will be naming the Cabinet. I swear to God the party will mash up."

Another was willing to bet $1 million that there will be no Cabinet positions for Pearnel Charles, Mike Henry, Karl Samuda and Derrick Smith.

"Two of them are former gang of five members," the latter source said.

In 1990, JLP members attempted to unseat Mr. Seaga as leader of the party. Those come to be known as the Gang of Five were Karl Samuda, Pearnel Charles, Ed Bartlett, Errol Anderson and Douglas Vaz.

After an unsuccessful attempt, and a bitter political fight, including a court battle, they were invited to "light a candle, sing a sankey and find your way back home."

Messers Charles, Bartlett and Samuda returned to the party, while Douglas Vaz went to the National Democratic Movement (NDM). Errol Anderson has since died.

Mr. Scott feels that should the JLP form the next Government, many of the current 'split ministries' will be joined, and some super ministries created.

He expressed the view that Mr. Seaga will keep the finance portfolio, leaving Audley Shaw "somewhere."

He also said, "Bruce Golding will have the most to lose if the JLP loses again and even if it wins, he will be between a rock and a hard place.

"Whichever way you look at it, Bruce will not have much to gain from a win and worse if the party loses. If it wins the loyalists will say the party was going to win the election anyway. If it loses, he will get the greatest blame," he said.

In addition, if the party loses, "the campaign will start immediately to flush Golding from making any challenges to the leadership," he said.