PRIME Minister P.J. Patterson and his governing People's National Party (PNP) are on course to secure a historic fourth term as Government, according to the findings of the latest Gleaner-Don Anderson poll.

For Mr. Patterson, it would mean a record consecutive third term as Prime Minister. He was previously elected in 1993 and 1997.

The poll, which was conducted between October 7 and 10 after Bruce Golding returned to the JLP after seven years and had already started campaigning, found that 41.7 per cent of those eligible to vote intend to cast their ballots for the PNP. This is seven percentage points more than the 34.7 per cent who said they would vote for the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), led by Edward Seaga.

For the latest poll, Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Limited interviewed a total of 1,114 persons of voting age across the island's 14 parishes. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.

These latest poll findings represent a widening of the PNP's lead by 3.5 per cent since the September poll which was conducted by Mr. Anderson and his team between September 23 and 27. At that time, when there was widespread speculation about Mr. Golding's return to the JLP, support for the Opposition stood at 33.7 per cent, hence a gain of one percentage point since. In September, the PNP was favoured by 37.2 per cent of the electorate.

The PNP's lead in the polls only three days before Jamaicans vote in the country's 14th parliamentary elections since Universal Adult Suffrage in 1944, marks a remarkable comeback for a party that had trailed in all public opinion polls for nearly 20 months. The PNP inched ahead by a percentage point in the April poll done by Mr. Anderson on behalf of The Gleaner, and has made steady progress since.

The improvements in the party's sagging fortunes can be directly attributed to the work of Maxine Henry-Wilson, who is both general secretary and campaign manager, and Dr. Paul Robertson campaign director. Both gave up ministerial posts last September at the party's annual conference to concentrate on securing a fourth term for the party which many analysts said had gone stale.

"The ruling PNP appears assured of victory in this week's election, having widened its lead over the Opposition JLP in the latest poll," said Mr. Anderson in his analysis.

The poll found that support for fringe and emerging parties remains insignificant. Only 0.6 per cent of those polled said they would back Antonnette Haughton-Cardenas' United People's Party, and 0.2 per cent said they would support the National Democratic Movement-New Jamaica Alliance.

Approximately 11.8 per cent of the electorate remain undecided while 11 per cent will not vote, according to the poll. Just over 1.3 million electors are on the voters' list for the October 16 general election. Previous polls have found that as many as 74 per cent of those eligible to vote intend to do so.

In a seat-by-seat breakdown of the 60 constituencies being contested by 176 candidates from several parties and independents, Mr. Anderson projects that the PNP will win 40, compared to 20 for the JLP.

He expects the JLP to win the border line seats of West Central St. Andrew, St. Ann North East and St. Catherine North East. Similarly, the PNP is expected to win St. Andrew Eastern, St. Thomas Western and St. Thomas Eastern.