WITH THE Local Government elections just days away, both major political parties are confident of victory as they enter the home stretch.

When the results of the October 16, 2002 General Election are extrapolated into electoral divisions, the PNP would have won 125 to 102 for the JLP. The parish councils of Portland, St. Mary, St. Ann, Hanover, Westmoreland, St. Elizabeth, Manchester and St. Catherine would have been retained by the PNP, with the JLP winning Trelawny, St. James and Clarendon.

The St. Thomas Parish Council and the Kingston and St. Andrew Corporation (KSAC) would both have ended up as a tie. The question now being asked is: Can the JLP now wrestle away a significant number of parish council divisions which were won by the PNP in the September 10, 1998 Local Government elections?

Of the 227 electoral divisions in the 1998 municipal and parish councils general election, the PNP won 168 to 59 for the JLP, with the PNP controlling all 12 parish councils along with the municipality of Kingston and St. Andrew.

UNIVERSAL ADULT SUFFRAGE

It is interesting to note that since universal adult suffrage was extended to local government in 1947, the PNP contested all 12 KSAC and Parish Council General Elections winning eight to the JLP's three.

Independents dominated the 1947 election. Of the 199 electoral division contested on October 23, 1947, Independents won 91 divisions to the JLP's 57 and the PNP's 51. The PNP won in 1951, 1956, 1960, 1974, 1977, 1986, 1990 and 1998. JLP in 1966, 1969 and 1981. The PNP victories in 1951 and 1986 stand out due to the fact that they were achieved during the incumbency of a JLP government. Can the JLP turn the table on the PNP on June 19, 2003?

A JLP victory would erase the bitter memory of July 29, 1986 when, having won 252 of the 275 electoral divisions in 1981, they lost 68.4% of the 187 KSAC and Parish Council Electoral Divisions, losing control of the KSAC and 11 parish councils, retaining only St. Thomas.

A PNP defeat, apart from breaking seven consecutive victories at the poll ­ 1986, 1989, 1990, 1993, 1997, 1998 and 2002, would put incumbent Prime Minister P.J. Patterson in the history books as the only PNP leader to lose a KSAC and Parish Council General Election during the incumbency of the party. Such a defeat would also take place in record time ­ only eight months and three days after being returned to office.

The JLP defeat of June 28, 1951 occurred 18 months after winning the December 20, 1949 Parliamentary General Election. There is no doubt that a defeat for either major political party could have a devastating effect on the morale of their supporters and, indeed, their vision for the future survival of their party.

CRITICAL CONTEST

With a voters' list of 1,321,576 (a 1.5% increase on the October 16, 2002 list), June 19, 2003 will be a day never to be forgotten by those who would have participated. This will be indeed a very critical contest and the outcome will have a significant effect on the leadership of both parties. As the polls closed and the results start coming in, all eyes and ears will be glued to the electronic media ­ radio and TV. Supporters of each party will wait with bated breath, hoping for a positive result.

So therefore, the question must be ­ which party will control the majority of parish councils? A very careful and in-depth analysis of the data available reveals the following:

The PNP is expected to retain the parishes of Portland, St. Mary, St. Ann, Westmoreland and Manchester, and the JLP is expected to win Trelawny. Of the remaining seven, the PNP, in a close contest will retain the KSAC, the parish councils of St. Catherine, St. Elizabeth and St. Thomas. The JLP in a close contest will win the St. James parish council.

It would come as no surprise if the Clarendon Parish Council was split down the middle ­ 11 for the PNP and 11 for the JLP. However, in such borderline situations, the outcome usually results in the incumbent taking the parish council.

THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION

Let us not forget that in spite of the many economic problems which have plagued the PNP administration since October 16, 2002, the next general election is some four- years-plus away and it is a fact that electors do not send messages so early after having given a mandate only eight months earlier, inspite of the closeness of such mandates.

In summary, the final result could therefore be PNP, 11 Parish Councils and the KSAC, JLP two.

Of the 227 electoral divisions, the PNP will retain 138 of the 168 won in the September 10, 1998 elections with the JLP winning an additional 30 increasing their tally to 80.

As I have often said, the greatest friend of truth is time. May the best candidate representing both political parties get the majority votes, thus ensuring that victory goes to our beloved country. Let us at all times put Jamaica first. Not the JLP or the PNP or any "P" for that matter.

* Anthony "Tony" Myers is a statistician and political analyst.