Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) surges - People's National Party (PNP) stands still

Published in the Jamaica Gleaner: Thursday | August 16, 2007

Byron Buckley, Associate Editor

The Bruce Golding-led Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has, statistically, drawn level with the People's National Party (PNP) as the gruelling electoral race enters the last lap which ends, less than two weeks away, on August 27.

According to the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP has maintained its pace with 40 per cent of popular support, while the JLP has surged to 38 per cent - a mere two points behind the governing party.

But, with the poll's error margin of plus or minus three per cent, statistically the JLP and PNP are matching strides down the backstretch to an anticipated photo finish. Since Johnson's last findings in mid-July, which placed the PNP at 40 per cent and the JLP at 34 per cent of electoral support, the Opposition party has moved forward by four percentage points.

Based on survey theory, it is likely that the JLP's current momentum will continue through to election day on August 27.

Likely to continue

A breakdown of Johnson's latest poll data, collected from 1,008 persons in 84 communities across Jamaica last weekend, indicates that the JLP has gained four crucial points in electoral support among uncommitted electors since mid-July. Of the persons interviewed by the polling team, nine per cent were undecided electors 11 per cent said they did not intend to vote, and two per cent refused to comment.

Commenting on his survey findings, Johnson says the PNP is 'treading water' while the JLP is enjoying 'positive momentum', apparently among uncommitted voters. "This is a classical race between an incumbent administration and a non-incumbent. After nearly 20 years in office, people feel they know the PNP's capabilities," argues Johnson.

He further notes: "While Simpson Miller's personal ratings are trending down, Golding's personal stocks are moving in the opposite direction."

This is demonstrated by the four percentage points drop in the Prime Minister's favourability rating since mid-July, compared to Golding's gain of three percentage points in favourability for the same period. An Simpson Miller is still more likeable than Golding, the difference between both leaders have decreased from 18 points in July to 11 points in August.

The survey was conducted last weekend, two weeks after the JLP issued its election manifesto and two days following the launch of the PNP's document. Johnson's polling team also conducted its fieldwork following a series of national debates between top leaders of the PNP and JLP last week. However, most of the polling would have been done prior to the final debate between Golding and Simpson Miller on Saturday night.