Jamaica Labour Party gaining momentum?

Published in the Jamaica Gleaner: Sunday | August 19, 2007

Ian Boyne, Contributor

The latest Bill Johnson poll showing the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) narrowing the gap with the People's National Party (PNP) must be deeply concerning to the latter party just one week before the crucial general election.

With the PNP's poll standing at 40 per cent compared to the JLP's 38 per cent, only two percentage points behind, and in a statistical dead heat, it must be troubling to the PNP that the JLP has picked up four percentage points since the last poll in mid-July, while its own position has stood firm. While 'standing firm' was a memorable PNP slogan of the past, it is the one thing the party does not need on the eve of an election.

Poll shows support

The poll also showed that the JLP was doing better at picking up support among the uncommitted. And it is, indeed, intuitive that an opposition party would find it easier to have the undecided switch to a decision to vote against the Government than for incumbents. This coupled with the opinion of many in the media that the JLP came out ahead in the national debates must be a cause for concern, even frantic re-strategising by the PNP. But political analysts learn that they can never write off the PNP. And a day is a long time in politics.

But the one thing the PNP cannot afford now is complacency. And the one set of people who are absolutely of no use to them are sycophants. What the PNP strategists and war room operatives need now most urgently are people who can speak to them boldly, frankly and truthfully. The cardinal rule of the propaganda game is that you should never believe your own propaganda.

If there is one part of the Bible which holds true in politics, it is the text from the Proverbs which says, "Pride comes before destruction and a haughty feeling before a fall." Humility and self-criticism are priceless assets in political campaigning, especially at a crucial stage like this - and especially for the incumbent PNP.

Things are naturally and psychologically stacked against incumbents. They have a natural disadvantage under normal circumstances. As we come closer to the elections, I am hearing more people express a kind of fatigue with the PNP's being in power for as long as eighteen and a half years. Many are saying it's time to give somebody else a chance.

In its communications strategy, the PNP has quite wisely focused not on a fifth term, reminding people of just how long they have really been in power, but have been stressing 'Portia's first term'. The key issue will be the effectiveness with which the PNP is able to reframe the issue in terms of Mama Portia's first term, rather than the fifth term of P.J.'s party.

Strategy for campaigning

Indeed, communications strategy is most decisive at this stage of the campaigning. I have always disagreed with those who have downplayed the importance of communications strategy in Jamaican election campaigning and those who give excessive weight to on-the-ground politicking and door-to-door canvassing. Face-to-face, grass-roots communications and organisation are terribly important, mind you, but we underestimate the extent to which even those activities are influenced by the media communications strategies. If you are tempted to underplay the importance of media communications in campaigning, just think about the JLP ads. I don't have to put any adjectives to them and compare them with the PNP ads. And I certainly don't have to put any adjectives to those either!

Except in circumstances where there are far-reaching ideological battles, such as in the 1980 elections when not only bread-and-butter issues were crucial but the issue of communism versus Christianity; 'godless atheism'versus freedom of worship and freedom of speech - which are at the apex of Jamaicans' values - advertising campaigns and public communications strategies are crucial in framing public opinion and influencing votes.

And certainly in a country like Jamaica where there is such a heavy media penetration. When people feel threatened ideologi-cally and when things are disastrous economically, as was the case in 1980, then even the most effective ad campaign and media propaganda can't ensure success.

In this election there are no such overarching issues. Nobody believes that a vote for any party will make a difference to freedom of worship or freedom of speech and association. Ideology is a dead issue here, as it is in the world generally (at least on the surface). And the economy is not in the mess that JLP propaganda makes it out to be, and the mass of the people are not suffering in the kinds of ways which some JLP campaigners would suggest. Hence, the PNP is still ahead in the polls, however marginally, and however much the lead is being cut.

Remember, these people have been in power for 18 years. With the economy in as miserable a shape as the JLP campaign line suggests, and with people as fed up as they are supposed to be with all the mismanagement and corruption which the JLP alleges, we should not be talking about a close election at all and, indeed, the PNP should be much further behind.

Keep that fact in mind. A party base can be eroded. As much as Jamaica is touted as 'PNP country', in 1980 that base was decimated. It is possible to significantly diminish that base. We are not seeing that in the case of the PNP today.

using state funds

If the JLP responds that it's state funds the PNP is using to shore up support and keep its base happy, then the PNP must be doing some good for large sections of the people. Other times we hear that it is just 'the PNP and its few friends' who are benefiting from PNP rule. Either way it works against the view that nothing is being done for the masses, and it demands an explanation as to why so many are still supporting the PNP. Unless all the polls are way off the mark - which we will soon ascertain.

But the PNP can't afford to start popping open any champagne. And it must do its own reality check. In my view, it has a most serious and daunting challenge in a JLP led by Bruce Golding. I have been telling PNP friends for a long time and writing for years in my columns that Bruce Golding has been underestimated by Comrades and is far more formidable than believed by the PNP.

In October 2002, when Golding was being mauled in the media, I wrote in a column titled 'JLP's Golding Opportunity' that while the PNP was likely to win that election, "Bruce is not thinking of October 16. For the first time he has a real opportunity to have state power within five years. Whatever happens on October 16, Bruce Golding cannot lose. When both P.J. Patterson and Edward Seaga are off the political scene and the myopic commentators are overtaken by history, it will be Golding's turn to test the PNP's electoral juggernaut."

The normal PNP propaganda line is that 'Golding is a hard sell. The people don't trust Bruce Golding'. In my view it is fatal for the PNP to base its campaign on that view. The portrayal of Golding as someone who can't be trusted; who is a mere flip-flopper, a hopscotcher; an indecisive man with no firm roots of his own but a mere puppet of 'Big Money', is not gaining traction.

Because there are no ideological contests and the differences between the parties are not as a fundamental as they were in 1980, this election campaign is more personality-focused. So the JLP ads are targeting Portia deliberately and specifically and the Comrades are 'going after Bruce' on thetrust issue. What the parties will have to realise at this stage of the campaign, however, is that the undecided or so-called uncommitted voters are not swayed by the deeply partisan issues.

The PNP, which needs even more than the JLP to target the uncommitted who would tend to swing toward the Opposition, has to gear its strategies largely towards the uncommitted.

If I were in the PNP's communications war room, I would not be spending too much energy seeking to demonise Golding. These strategies don't impress swing voters. Swing voters are impressed with issues, ideas and a vision. They are less emotional than the partisans. The psychology of outrage can work with them, of course, but you have to be sure that the outrage you are seeking to generate is not based on manufactured things. They must be real and palpable.

JLP surge

Stopping what they on Thursday describes as the 'JLP surge' is not the easiest of tasks, and this is where communications skills, political strategy, organisational work and psychological tactics come in. Bill Johnson is quoted in Thursday's Gleaner as saying that the JLP was enjoying "positive momentum" while the PNP was "treading water. After nearly 20 years people feel they know the PNP's capabilities."

This is why the PNP will have to do more than parade achievements. So this is what makes the PNP's task difficult: Ithas to be careful about attacking Golding personally lest it alienates uncommitted voters; it can't simply brag about solid achievements, and the JLP has captured its social welfare programmes for which it has been known, i.e., education and health care.

But Portia Simpson Miller is nothing else if not resilient and a relentless fighter. She has not reached to the top without boundless self-confidence,faith and resoluteness. She is accustomed to swimming upstream. She is not going to give in to any pessimism.

But Bruce Golding has not worked so long and so hard to have the crown slip from his hands. What high stakes! What high drama!

Ian Boyne is a veteran journalist who may be reached at ianboyne1@yahoo.com.