JLP's Witter to blow Horne off course in South East St Elizabeth

Published in the Jamaica Gleaner: Wednesday | August 29, 2007

WESTERN BUREAU:

Although the momentum favours the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), a tight race is expected next week for the South East St. Elizabeth constituency.

A Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found that 45 per cent of registered voters say they would support the JLP's Franklyn Witter against 42 per cent for the People's National Party's Norman Horne.

The poll was conducted among 480 respondents on August 11 and 12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus five per cent. When all respondents (registered and non-registered voters) were asked who they would like to see win the South East St. Elizabeth seat, 49 per cent supported Witter, 41 per cent said Horne while 10 per cent were undecided.

Lost seat in 2002

In the 2002 General Election, the JLP's Franklyn Witter lost the South East St. Elizabeth seat by 73 votes to the PNP's Lenworth Blake, polling 7,515 votes to his opponent's 7,588.

"When Mr. Witter lost in 2002, he never ran away from us so I am all for him this time around. I think he deserves a chance," said Southfield parish council worker Sonia Campbell. "I have every confidence that he would represent us well in Parliament."

However, for Junction farmer Timmy Davis, he thinks Mr. Horne is the better of the two candidates as, according to him, he has a better vision for the constituency. "Mr. Horne is well respected in the halls of power and that is why both the JLP and PNP have put him on their tickets at different times," said Davis. "He is a smart man, who has very good connections and valuable experience both locally and internationally."

Unlike in some other constituencies, there is not expected to be any significant 'coat-tail' advantage for any single candidate in this constituency. The favourability rating for PNP leader Portia Simpson Miller is 50 per cent while that for JLP leader Bruce Golding is 49 per cent.

Fifty-one per cent of respondents in the constituency said that things are going in the wrong direction in the country, while 47 per cent said that things were not going in the right direction in South East St. Elizabeth. Looking at other numbers, 47 per cent of the respondents believe that Mr. Golding would do a better job as Prime Minister against 42 per cent for Mrs. Simpson Miller; 50 per cent has a favourable opinion of the JLP against 46 per cent for the PNP.

It is also interesting to note that, at the local level, 46 per cent of the respondents think their constituency, which has a strong agricultural base, is going in the right direction against 47 per cent who think otherwise. "As a farming community we are well blessed but we need more training opportunities and jobs for the young people," said Southfield domestic helper Sharon Spence. "If the youths are the future we should be preparing them for the future."

While the respondents generally see crime (62 per cent) as the nation's most pressing problem, from a local perspective, they see the absence of a suitable water supply system as their greatest concern. Based on the poll results, 42 per cent said that water problem is their main concern followed by lack of jobs (41 per cent) and poor road conditions (17 per cent).

"It is a shame that we still have people carrying water on their heads in 2007 in St. Elizabeth," said Ms. Spence. "If after 18 years of the PNP we are still having a water problem, I am all for trying the JLP to see what they can do to fix it."

Regardless of how you feel about your local candidate for Parliament, if an election is held today, who would you vote for?

JLP: 45%

PNP: 42%

Undecided: 6%

Refused: 2%

Would not vote: 5%

Reasons why JLP:

Need a change: 29%

Would do a good/better job: 14%

JLP supporter, family tradition: 10%

PNP is doing nothing: 8%

Reasons why PNP:

Doing a good job: 19%

Supporter, family tradition: 18%

Like it, a good party: 14%

The best, better than the JLP: 10%

Not changing no course: 8%