Drawn result is a possibility

Gareth Manning, Sunday Gleaner Reporter

As the two major political parties race down the stretch towards the finish line, some analysts are suggesting there could be a tie.

A tie could have serious implications for the country, authorities have argued, even while the Governor-General says he has a plan to deal with the problem, should it arise.

The problem should have been addressed after the last election, they say, but both parties failed to deal with it.

In favour of JLP

Analyst Richard Crawford says while the momentum seems to be in favour of the JLP at the moment, a tie still could be very likely.

"I would have preferred if they came up with an agreement and said, in the event of a tie, this is the procedure we would use," he adds.

Political analyst Charlene Sharpe-Pryce disagrees. She believes that there will be more marginal wins in this election than the last, which had 18 such seats. However, if there is a tie, she says, this will have positive socio-political impact on the country.

She feels a tie could improve accountability, as Members of Parliament would be forced to ensure that their constituencies were effectively represented so as not to lose a seat. But given the nature of Jamaica's politics, a tie coul tribalism in the country.

But she concedes: "A 30/30 split in the Parliament spells gridlock/deadlock, which is a feature of presidential systems and not parliamentary systems. Even if the Governor-General should appoint one leader as Prime Minister, the fact would remain that no party has a clear mandate to effect the management of the country," Sharpe-Pryce says.

Challenges

Agreeing also that a tie is possible, principal of the Norman Manley Law School and one of the region's foremost constitutional lawyers, Keith Sobion, says while the Constitution gives the Governor-General the right to intervene, there will still be challenges.

"Unless somebody crosses the floor, the Governor-General is going to have a difficulty in that no one will command the majority of the House in which that may very well [mean] one will have to have a new election all together," he says.

Falling back on a similar occurrence in Trinidad and Tobago in 2001, when there was a tie between the People's National Movement and the United National Congress, Sobion pointed out that parties may fail to agree and Jamaica could find itself in a similar position if there should be a tie, bearing in mind the nation's nature of politics.

For almost a year, there was no Parliament in Trinidad because the parties could not agree on a Speaker of the House, though earlier, they had agreed to allow the president to choose a speaker.

"I know that the Governor-General had said that it is not a concern, he has it worked out, but I am trying to think of what other mechanisms he has in mind that makes him so self-assured about it. I think it is a difficult problem," says Sobion.